| isolated freak |
Posted
on 07-May-03 08:43 PM
Contrary to what people living away from Nepal believe, the Maoists aren't a decisive force in Nepali politics anymore. They are now under attack from the people and from the international community, and they are operating in isolation. The government has more bargaining power than them and the Royal Nepalese Army has already issued a warning to the Maoists that no "going back to the jungle". This has put the Maoists in a very difficult position: How to save face? They know they can't wage a decisive war against this government which enjoys the backing of India, China, EU and the US, and the Army is now in a better position strategically. When I say, Strategic Advantage, I mean the REAL military advantage.
The Maoists will either join the mainstream or diappear forever in the coming months. My previous calculation that the two oppsing forces of the spectrum will come together to bring about development seems to go wrong. The Maoists made a blunder mistake policy-wise: Thye coculdn't take anyon into confidence because they (The Maosits) don't seem to know what they want. Even if they know what they want, they haven't been stating it in clear terms and their inconsistency is slowly alienating them from the Palace, the Political Parties and the People.
The Maoist leadership knows very well that there hasn't been a successful Communist movement in the world since 1990. Its not happening now. The US does not want to see a Maoists state in this Unipolar World, and India obviously wouldn't be vcery happy to see a Maoist state right under their nose. So, their coming to the talks can be interpreted as their "tactical " retreat. They know that its about time they changed their ways. They neither enjoy the international support, and whatever public support they had gathered in 7 months with their own unusual ways seem to decline slowly due to their own miscalculation of the Nepali people. THE MAOIST LEADERSHIP FORGOT ONE THING: THEY CAN"T FOOL THE PEOPLE ANYMORE. The Maoists have soured their relationship with the Political Parties by changing their tune all the time. Moreover, they (The Maoists) have a tailor made answer/things to say to every party. Their strategy that "make everyone happy by telling them what they want to hear" has started to backfire and its the Maoists that now seeks political help from the Palace and the Parties. In this context, their dropping the demand of a Republican state fits well. Furthermore, they are saying that they wil have "parties" in the new proposed "system". THis all shows that the Maoist strategy to play one group against another has failed miserabley and the people, just as they are tired of hearing the political parties, are tired of the Maioists. So, the Maoists have come to a point where they have realized that they can't go on with the politics of "terror".
So, what remains neutral and consistent in the last 12 years? Its the institution of monarchy. People now support the King more than they support the Maoists or the Political Parties. The number of people gathered in Tundikhel when the Political Partied declared the next round of revolution makes it very clear that the Political Parties do not have very less public support. The Maoists too know that to bring about a change in Nepali political system they need to take the kathmandu People in confidence, which they have failed miserabely. I am not saying that Kathmandu represents Nepal, but let's face it: Kathmandu still remains the hub of Nepali "everything".
Now who's going to win in this battle for power? Obviously, the King. Although, the King has made it clear that he has no intention to get into active politics, the Parties and the Maoists are forcing him to take decisive decisions, thus forcing him to become an active Monarch. And given the current state of Nepali politics, people are actually welcoming the King's decisions. He is wise. He knows how to play the game fairly and there's been a surge in his popularity.
Now, we can very well say that the Political Parties will soon be history, or they would see a trend of break ups. The Congressis are going to break up soon. Then the Commies will follow. Then other small parties will follow. The Maoists will keep on loosing its base and their main focus now will be on saving their face. The King, however will keep on enjoying the popular support and unwillingly find himself involved in the Politics. And it has to happen to save Nepal. There's no leader in Nepal other than the King who has a clear vision, who is consistent and who is POPULAR.
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