| Username |
Post |
| isolated freak |
Posted
on 07-May-03 08:44 PM
Contrary to what people living away from Nepal believe, the Maoists aren't a decisive force in Nepali politics anymore. They are now under attack from the people and from the international community, and they are operating in isolation. The government has more bargaining power than them and the Royal Nepalese Army has already issued a warning to the Maoists that no "going back to the jungle". This has put the Maoists in a very difficult position: How to save face? They know they can't wage a decisive war against this government which enjoys the backing of India, China, EU and the US, and the Army is now in a better position strategically. When I say, Strategic Advantage, I mean the REAL military advantage.
The Maoists will either join the mainstream or diappear forever in the coming months. My previous calculation that the two oppsing forces of the spectrum will come together to bring about development seems to go wrong. The Maoists made a blunder mistake policy-wise: Thye coculdn't take anyon into confidence because they (The Maosits) don't seem to know what they want. Even if they know what they want, they haven't been stating it in clear terms and their inconsistency is slowly alienating them from the Palace, the Political Parties and the People.
The Maoist leadership knows very well that there hasn't been a successful Communist movement in the world since 1990. Its not happening now. The US does not want to see a Maoists state in this Unipolar World, and India obviously wouldn't be vcery happy to see a Maoist state right under their nose. So, their coming to the talks can be interpreted as their "tactical " retreat. They know that its about time they changed their ways. They neither enjoy the international support, and whatever public support they had gathered in 7 months with their own unusual ways seem to decline slowly due to their own miscalculation of the Nepali people. THE MAOIST LEADERSHIP FORGOT ONE THING: THEY CAN"T FOOL THE PEOPLE ANYMORE. The Maoists have soured their relationship with the Political Parties by changing their tune all the time. Moreover, they (The Maoists) have a tailor made answer/things to say to every party. Their strategy that "make everyone happy by telling them what they want to hear" has started to backfire and its the Maoists that now seeks political help from the Palace and the Parties. In this context, their dropping the demand of a Republican state fits well. Furthermore, they are saying that they wil have "parties" in the new proposed "system". THis all shows that the Maoist strategy to play one group against another has failed miserabley and the people, just as they are tired of hearing the political parties, are tired of the Maioists. So, the Maoists have come to a point where they have realized that they can't go on with the politics of "terror".
So, what remains neutral and consistent in the last 12 years? Its the institution of monarchy. People now support the King more than they support the Maoists or the Political Parties. The number of people gathered in Tundikhel when the Political Partied declared the next round of revolution makes it very clear that the Political Parties do not have very less public support. The Maoists too know that to bring about a change in Nepali political system they need to take the kathmandu People in confidence, which they have failed miserabely. I am not saying that Kathmandu represents Nepal, but let's face it: Kathmandu still remains the hub of Nepali "everything".
Now who's going to win in this battle for power? Obviously, the King. Although, the King has made it clear that he has no intention to get into active politics, the Parties and the Maoists are forcing him to take decisive decisions, thus forcing him to become an active Monarch. And given the current state of Nepali politics, people are actually welcoming the King's decisions. He is wise. He knows how to play the game fairly and there's been a surge in his popularity.
Now, we can very well say that the Political Parties will soon be history, or they would see a trend of break ups. The Congressis are going to break up soon. Then the Commies will follow. Then other small parties will follow. The Maoists will keep on loosing its base and their main focus now will be on saving their face. The King, however will keep on enjoying the popular support and unwillingly find himself involved in the Politics. And it has to happen to save Nepal. There's no leader in Nepal other than the King who has a clear vision, who is consistent and who is POPULAR.
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 07-May-03 09:14 PM
makes it very clear that the Political Parties do not have very less public support= makes it very clear that the political Parties have very less support.
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| noname |
Posted
on 07-May-03 11:16 PM
There is no dearth of discussion on Monarchy, Political parties, and Maoists in archives of SAJHA, and there is no harm in adding few more. With this spirit, let me put my two cents:
There are three forces trying to get hold of the state (not in any order, except alphabetical!): Maoist, Monarch and other Political parties having representation in now defunct parliament.
Maoist: Besides hope of peace and sheer frustration among the general public and lust for the radical slogans forwarded by them, the strength behind Maoists is the efficient arm forces that they have been able to accumulate in the last 7 years. Their main weaknesses are: they do not have any international support behind them and the US strongly advocates against them; they have not yet been able to convince the public and the media let alone the political parties - of their agenda; declining communist revolutionary wave in the world; and, competitive communist ideological forces in the political spectrum of Nepal e.g. UML.
Politcal parties: The wrangling among themselves, corrupt image of their leaders, lack of trust in each another, and the debacle of past 12 years tagged behind them have made the political parties weakest limb in the triangular conflict. How dogmatic the political parties are can be seen from one example: they have not been able to include congress led by Deuba in their movement. Their strengths are their large cadre base, postitive gesture from other countries, and their constant support for the democracy this last factor along gives them enough credential to launch a movement against the Monarch. But this time they lack the strength, because they themselves are not sure what are they demanding for and how would they get it.
Monarch: The institution of monarchy has been at centerstage from known past in the history of Nepal. The current monarchy draws it's power from three factors: Legacy (being descendents of the king who unified Nepal), Religious (the King is believed to be incarnation of lord Bishnu), the Army (the armed forces traditionaly being under control of the palace). And further to this, because of the chaos in last twelve years, a large chunk of the general public have pinned their hope once again in the King. The weakness is people who experienced 30 years of direct rule under active King are still alive.
Ultimately, this chaos will end either by complete takeover of the power by one force the King or the Maoists or by power sharing among the three parties. I think the unifying issue for all these three forces is: nationality. This will give safe landing for all the forces. BP once forwarded national reconciliation, and was able to make ground in Nepal, though other party never agreed formally on that. What will come as unique slogan this time?
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 08-May-03 10:20 AM
I apologize to all of you because this message got posted twice and there have been comments in both. So, i'd go with this thread and reply to everyone who have posted their comments on the other "one".
Noname: Posted on 05-07-03 11:16 PM Reply Ultimately, this chaos will end either by complete takeover of the power by one force the King or the Maoists or by power sharing among the three parties. I think the unifying issue for all these three forces is: nationality. This will give safe landing for all the forces. BP once forwarded national reconciliation, and was able to make ground in Nepal, though other party never agreed formally on that. What will come as unique slogan this time?
Noname , I beg to differ. The power sharing among the three or even the two focres at this time is not very likely. The reason being that there's not a single binding force. BP's reconciliation was more of a personal move than a poilitical one. When Inmdira Gandhi imposed the state of emergecy in India, all those exiled leaders were asked to go back to Nepal. BP then thought that he would rather be in a Nepali prision than in an Indian prison. And he came to Nepal with that "rastriya melmilap niti".
Altough it was more of a persoanl face saving strategy, it nonetheles had some good points. And BPs main strength was that he kept the communists away. He did not allign with the communists to stage a revolution and that was probably one of his brilliant moves.
Looking athe events, it won't take a rocket scientist to figure out that its the KIng's turn now. He will emerge a victor, and that's probably in the best interests of Nepal and it's people.
Some luciferche said in the other thread that there are still some people who believe in feudalism. To this my reply is, Yes, there are many people and I am one of those.
Tick: Nepal ko rastra nayak ko netritwa ma aaba rastra le naya gaati ra agragami nikas paune aasha garaun..
namaste all.
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| tick |
Posted
on 08-May-03 03:07 PM
IF jyu,
I hope that peace prevails and people denounce the corrupted leaders and elect new leaders that are more concerned about the nation rather than them-selves. We also need leaders that have vision, ability and morale. Current political leaders have neither of those qualities.
King's leadership will fill the leadership vaccum in the country.
>Tick: Nepal ko rastra nayak ko netritwa ma aaba rastra le naya gaati ra agragami nikas paune aasha garaun..
Couldn't agree more.
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 08-May-03 06:42 PM
Tick,
I hope the same.
let there be peace and stabiity.
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| maximum20 |
Posted
on 08-May-03 06:55 PM
"tick's" vision of a great nation is rather too idealistic. I agree that the king's role is important in stabilizing the nation's aimless leadership but i wonder if the people can ever elect leaders who have vision, ability and morale. See, Nepali's (and a big, big percentage of the "democratic world" ) don't actually vote for people. It's more like which political party you prefer. How many of the people who voted for Nepali Congress do you think had analyzed Girija's character before dropping their votes? Advertisement, funds to unions and forceful balloting shape our democracy so to expect the poeple to elect an able person-in-charge is rather ludicrous.
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 08-May-03 07:21 PM
See, Nepali's (and a big, big percentage of the "democratic world" ) don't actually vote for people. It's more like which political party you prefer. How many of the people who voted for Nepali Congress do you think had analyzed Girija's character before dropping their votes?
Gajjab point yaar,. I remember my grandfather who was almost 76 then and during the first general elections of 1991, he voted for Daman Dhungana because he somehow got the idea taht voting on rookh menas voting for the congressis and its mahan geta path garne neta, Krishne gadha.
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| jaya_nepal |
Posted
on 08-May-03 07:53 PM
Monarch is the only solution for peace in Nepal. This was clearly seen when people came on the streets rejoicing the Royal takeover by King Gyanendra. Nepali people have suffered for these twelve years of "democracy".
Though the government represented the people, power was only in hands of the leaders. But if there is referendum in the nation to choose between the Monarch, Maoists and the Political Parties, the Monarch would result in the least number of votes. This is because, firstly the politcal parties would buy the voters by the money they have been collecting since past years of democracy. This has been the common trend so far. They have more cadres in the grass root level than the Palace. Secondly, Maoists is another factor that may reduce the votes showing their own militiary strength. Finally, the Palace has very few people in the country to influence the voters as compared to what used to be during the pachayat era.
A joint government including the Maoist would never last in Nepal. Maoists idelogies differ totally from the main political parties. And each party would definitely try to make their leaders on the top position. No one would compromise for sure. When, Congress and Communist parties cannot compromise within themselves, there is no way they could sustain a same government.
The only Maoist government is also not possible observing the international scenario. The United States war on terrorism has definitely affected the Maoists. India - the most influential for Nepali politics - would also not support Maosist because they themselves have similar groups within their own nation who demand the same through violence. Indian support to Maoist in Nepal would make the Indian government weaker within their nation. Another Indian factor is the pro-Hindu government of Vajapayee in India. This government would support King than any other political parties despite their close relations with Koirala or Nepal or Thapa. Beleive it or not, India, directly or indirectly plays a great role in any political change in Nepal.
Considering the scenario outside and inside Nepal, it may be concluded that Monarchy is the only solution for Nepal. One can visualize the rate of development together with curroption before and after the 1990 revolution. Nepal has been definitely ruined by few people for their vested interest.
Few public enterprises that have been privatised or closed down due to bad governance after 1990: Nepal Tea Development Corporation, Nepal Bank Limited, Sajha Bus Sewa, Royal Nepal Airlines (on the verge of collapse) and many others.
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| jaya_nepal |
Posted
on 08-May-03 08:00 PM
Forgot to add one point -
Monarchy cannot return by people's choice. King Gyanendra has to follow his father's path - though in a bit rationalized manner than what King Mahendra did. Otherwise, Monarchy can never be restored by people's choice. Force has to be used for the existence of Crown, Palace, Monarchy and yes the country NEPAL.
Jai Desh, Jai Naresh
Hamro Raja Hamro Desh, Pran Bhanda Pyaro Cha
Lets revive these slogans and the cultural heritage of the Kingdom of Nepal. King must assume the power in Nepal.
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 08-May-03 08:04 PM
so glad to see fellow nepalis who too believe in the institution of monarchy and have immense respect for the esteemed institution.
jaya nepal: yes, why not..
Jai desh, jai naresh!
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| mirador |
Posted
on 08-May-03 09:51 PM
Propaganda alert.
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| tick |
Posted
on 09-May-03 08:38 AM
Jai Desh. Jai Naresh.
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