| Username |
Post |
| noname |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 06:04 PM
King G is unpredictable. (I devoted one complete thread on this issue, and derived the conclusion that King G's choice would not be Makune). But, to be honest, I never thought he is going to appoint SBT. What might have been the reason for his appointment?
1. Pressure from India: Given recent pilgrimage of SBT to Delhi Durbar, and judging by his previous records, this reasoning holds water. King G was also eager to mend relation with India. So, it appears obvious that SBT snatched it from MAKUNE because of foreign interests. Nonetheless, it's known fact that the King does not have a good relation with SBT from long past, and his support for political parties might have distanced him further. Then, why did he choose SBT instead of Badri Mandal, if we are to believe that it's Indian pressure?
2. Relationship with MAKUNE: Pushkar Shrestha has recounted that Palace was not happy with Makune, because of his rebuff to continue in probe team after giving verbal accent to the King. The Palace was looking for a written application from Madhav, writes PS, and he lost his chance last time because he failed to submit a written proposal. But this time he did it very promptly, and within the prescribed time. He and his party was one of the loyalist in the current movement (Instead, it was SBT who coined the word 'KHETALA'!). It is obvious that his relationship with the King in later days were cordial. So, it can not be said the King did not trust him, and instead opted for SBT.
3. Maoists: One plausible reason may be that Maoists felt threat with democratic parties heading the government, and would have been more comfortable with someone from RPP. Col'n Pun contacted them and informed the Palace that Maoists will retract from the proces in case MAKUNE is appointed. But SBT?
4. Something new: I argue that this whole episode has more to do with something new happening in the political spectrum of Nepal. Chand's resignation, I suppose, have more to do with inclusion of a shrewd, cunning, and 'capable' politician like SBT in the government than the movement of political parties. The king knows that Maoists are never going to join parliamentary forces in the government (look at the abrupt rejection of MAKUNE by Maoists), and resolving Maoist crisis only can give credibility to his Oct. 4 step. So, the king might be going for election of Constitutional assembly, and no one can serve Palace's interest better than SBT in an election. HE HAS EXPERIENCE OF JANAMAT SANGRAHA, 2036.
Is that something new, CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY ? I think so.
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| SA |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 06:41 PM
Noname ji,
insightful observation!
I also do not think that SBT was a preferred candidate for king G. At times SBT gave surprising shocks to palace- be it his coining of Bhumugat Goroh or Raja ka KHETALA. He is very unconventional personalities amoung RPP leaders in the sense that he has guts of standing against the palace. I think MKN would have been more accomodating to advance place's interest. I do not think MKN could have pressed the King to extent of making formal statement about the full excecutive power according to the Article 35. In a way, it proves the hypothesis that Chand government did not have full excecutive authority.
So, it apprears that SBT is going to play long inning- much longer than people could have thought now. He can not be fired like Deuba or Chand. And he is not among those who tender their resignation on the instruction of King's secretary.
One good implication of this development could be the marginalization of Neo-MANDALEs.
Political development in next two- three days would be very crucial. In BBC Nepali sewa, SBT sounded very confident and optimistic and also claimed political legitimacy (as he was able to address all the political issues the major political parties are raising).
We should not be surprised if this development causes yet another split in NC or UML. NC/UML politcal standing has been much weakened as their movement now appears to have targeted just for PM's chair. There is a strong possibility that some mainstream senior leaders from NC/UML (Shailaja, Bamdev, even Oli?) may join SBT' cabinet.
SA
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| GP |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 07:48 PM
SA: There is a strong possibility that some mainstream senior leaders from NC/UML (Shailaja, Bamdev, even Oli?) may join SBT' cabinet.
S ji,
As we talked elsewhere last time, the things happened what could be the ultimate outcome in this PM's musical chair game. Finally, your prediction goes smooth.
Makune failed first: he did not have clear plan, except to reinstate: Girija's game.
The suspension of movement temporarily while waiting for NEW PINCH to new daura suruwal clearly gives a wrong message to public. The "New Pinch" might never come to Makune. Girija is now wondering with his "Grand Design" Theory.
Next move to see is: Sailaja and Bamdev. If they join this govt., then, CIAA will be
active, because Sailaja being herself one of the most monetarily honest in NC would
like to minimize the Sujata gang in NC, that has a lot of corrupts e.g. GRJ and Arjun Narsingh KC.
Anyway, its not easy to predict. But, kicking out SBT will be a big problem to King G.
But, SBT is the choice of Maoists, so that they can keep on bluffing us that they are directly dealing with King G. in their attempt to make a safe landing.
GP
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 08:39 PM
interesting insights from all. enjoyed reading you all's analysis of events unfolding in nepal. let's just hope for the best.
as far as i am concerned, everyting is a historic(-al) necessity, so... maybe this is what the nation needs badly this time.
namaste
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| isolated freak |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 08:44 PM
There is a strong possibility that some mainstream senior leaders from NC/UML (Shailaja, Bamdev, even Oli?) may join SBT' cabinet.
Shailaja is one of the mature and clean leaders of NC. Oli too seems to be quite balanced UML leader. Don't know much about Bamdev though. If SBT is successful in bringing these people in his cabinet, the chances of CIAA becoming even stronger can't be ruled out. (as GP already said).
namaste
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| acharya |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 08:51 PM
GP, where did u get that info that SBT explained his governance outline to king before he was offered the position ??
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| noname |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 11:27 PM
A minor correction:
(in 3rd para, 3rd line) verbal accent = verbal assent (KAHA SRI DEVI, KAHA FOOLAN DEVI !)
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| noname |
Posted
on 04-Jun-03 11:44 PM
SA...thanks.
I listened to that interview. I am not sure whether he was confident when he said ...MA KURO MILAIHALCHHU NI....or that was just a 'KAMCHALAU' comment.
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| allare |
Posted
on 05-Jun-03 12:44 AM
Quite good observation by noname, SA and GP.
I do not know why, but media is giving great support to SBT unlike to LBC.
Another rumour is that, some people from UML (may be Bamdev or Oli) is joining SBT govt. In that case, KURSI andolan of UML(MAKUNE) and NC (GPK) will have no value.
In BBC interview, SBT sounds quite confident about his next move, though do not know to achieve them. He just said that "Malai chodi dinu na, Ma milai halchu ni", but how, he has no clear answer.
With all this political movement, Nepalese are now quite sure that, in all this power game, India plays very big role, either you accept it or not, but its bitter truth. So, to become PM, support of nepalese people are less important than support from India and Palace.
Guys, do you see election near(in next 6 months) or it is still far far away?
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| SA |
Posted
on 05-Jun-03 02:03 AM
Allare,
You are right in saying..
"With all this political movement, Nepalese are now quite sure that, in all this power game, India plays very big role, either you accept it or not, but its bitter truth. So, to become PM, support of nepalese people are less important than support from India and Palace"
But support of Nepalese should matter and, in fact, does matter- provided that our leaders have vision and perspectives to correctly perceive the strength of citizens support. But our politicians cannot even think of, let alone face, the situation of maintaining SATTA without pleasing foreign powers. We have still not been able to define what constitute national interest and where is the LAXMAN line while dealing with India. We have seen in the past that our leaders need Indians help even to solve the intra-party quarrels. So why to blame India?
SA
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