| Username |
Post |
| GP |
Posted
on 17-Jul-03 10:39 PM
Long time back, I predicted it to be around 2008-2010. Now, what Maoists are doing?
1. Playing a game.
2. The announced cease-fire, when they worst public support and greatest suppress from RNA.
3. In cease fire, they confused people that Maoists are searching for a kind of safe-lading and came to KTM ..... did lot of propaganda. Finally, won the semi-educated and highly cunning educated public's minds. Now, BRB and gang is back to India.
4. BRB used ambulance vehicle to escort arms to Maoists stronghold from India border. (reported in news media).
5. Recently, RNA finds Maoists supplying / carrying arms. ... In fact, cease-fire was never a cease-fire, because Maoists were killing peoples, school teachers ... just they used different names. In fact, this period was intended for reinforcing Maoists with arms. RNA's big mistake is to let the Maoists carry guns by confiining themselves around 5km from Barracks.
6. It is reported that Maoists have changed the strategy of importing rifles, guns and bombs. In the pasty they carried in bulk, but, this time they used their grass root cadres to carry guns and other fire arms, one by one using open borders .... So that its difficult to trace .....
7. It is reported that enough fire arms are already stored in their stronghold Kirtipur. Kirtipur is not only stronghold of maoists, but, Kirtipures also want to take revenge on Shah Bansa for the loss of nose of their great parents about 230years back.... They are being exploited rightly for need of Maoists.
8. Now, all the top tier Maoists leaders are leaving to India, a kind of preparation for third round of attack. If RNA is not ready, this time, they will probably not attack Dang, but, the Tudikhel's .... Bhadrakali Gan.
9. What are they waiting? For monsoon to cease. Around end of August or start of September, another fresh attack will start. All Sajhaities, ask you relatives to leave villages if you think they have some money.
10. This time if attack starts, those whose family or relatives live a better life (seen from Nepal), will have to pay tax of leaving nepal to Maoists or your relatives will be killed or looted. A Maoists supporter friend of mine, told this may be necessary in next round of attack. This was trick used by Tamil tigers for years. Two tamil friends who left Sri Lanka
were asked to pay Rs. 5,000 each year to someone from Tamil Tiger who roams around
the world in order to collect money from foreign resident Tamils, and those who failed, their relatives in Sri Lanka were punished or someone from their family was forced to join Tamil Tigers. .... .......... Lets see ...
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| Neta_ji |
Posted
on 17-Jul-03 11:48 PM
If we look some of the past civil wars in the countries of Central America , where all the civil wars were initiated by the communist revolutionaries, we have to consider that we are not even halfway through the civil war. Here are some examples of countries in Central America where civil wars initiated by the communist revolutionaries the cost of the war in terms of human lives.
Guatemala: 1954-1995 and the political situation still not stablized after 1995 peace agreement. Cost of war: 75,000 dead another 45,000 were made disappeared in the hands ofthe state or rebels. One third of entire population of the nation fled the country.
Nicaragua: 1927-1933 and again in 1961-1990. Civil war between 1961-1990 left 50,000 dead and anothe 100,000 in arms.
El Salvador: 1980-1992. Cost of war: 70,000 dead.
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| jaya_nepal |
Posted
on 18-Jul-03 10:11 AM
GP may be true that the Maoist are only preparing themselves for another attack. The second round of talks resulted in the controversial limitiation of army within five kms of their barracks. No one knows what exactly was decided. But limiting the army would be more safe heaven for the maoists. They can do whatever they want in a place where Police has no control over anything. If they are so committed towards the peace process - as they claimed - why dont they surrender their arms first but only demand for restriction of the army for the peaceful negotiations. If they really wanted, why do they still carry out their extortions and murders and other terrorist activities. Its all confusing.
One thing also comes to my mind, because Maoists demand have been twisting and turning every now and then. May be, this is just a power play by external force - i do not say it is India or USA, may be any country or organisation - so that Nepal is always in some kind of trouble. That way it would be easy to cast its influence. And this is not impossible. It is said that UN is there to take care of every issue - but when Sikkim can be taken over by India, Iraq be invaded by US-UK forces for no reason, then why cant Nepal be taken over by any powerful Nation?
It is time that we fellow Nepali citizens understand the whole scenario before it is too late. Our leaders are all curropt. They dont care about their nation - they just need is wealth. Everyone gotta be united to protect the sovereignity an integrity of our mother nation - Nepal. A single person cannot do anything, it has to be united revolution. Let us all unite to save our nation before we are given a refugee status in our own country.
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| Neta_ji |
Posted
on 18-Jul-03 04:31 PM
It is sad to acknowledge that the majority of the users still unable to understand the dynamics of the Maoist civil war. Most the user have seen corruption, lack of ethics and lack of rule of law in the last 10-12 years as a causes of continued conflict. One should be always be aware when finding the difference between the gunpowder and the match stick. The FACTOR (corruption, lack of ethics etc) is not gunpowder, it is only a matchstick, however match stick (corruption, lack of ethics etc) does plays its part when the gunpowder is ready and placed near it.
It should be noted that the conditions and circumstances necessary for a civil war (such as wide spread social injustice, poverty, lack of education, economic deprivation, discrimination and frustration and resentment that resulted ) which collectively make up gunpowder cannot be prepared in just a matter of 10-12 years. It can take ages or centuries. In the case of Nepal it has taken 240 years which is comparatively a longer period than in most other nations at war. Longer it takes, more gunpowder it accumulates resulting in explosion of greater magnitude.
Can we consider the Maoist as gunpowder or match stick or something else?
The Maoists can be neither considered gunpowder nor a matchstick. They are simply a group of people who gathered all the accumulated gunpowder (from various aspects) of Nepali society and put it near the burning matchstick. When the match stick (corruption, lack of ethics, lack of rule of law) was burning with the greatest intensity the gunpowder caught the fire (in 1996).
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| KaleKrishna |
Posted
on 18-Jul-03 08:43 PM
So Netaji,
is your proposal for a massive forest fire that can clean sweep the forest and wait for new growth.
Sorry my perception may be wrong.
In this case the undergrowth may be best gone and left to be replaced by more healthy and green offshoots, but what about the massive trees that took centuries to grow, when will they ever grow to make the jungle (that really made the forest i.e Nepal). Some dead logs may perish for good what about the essential pillars, what about the innocent and delicate ecosystem that comprises of millions of diverse living and on living creatures (take it as the example of various things that comprises a Nepali identity).
And who can gurantee that once the forest is burnt, there will be no encroachers from North and South who may utilize the open space to settle their ever increasing population.
Sorry for the comparision, it was in context to one senior local Maoist comrade comparing the revolution with forest fire.
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| Neta_ji |
Posted
on 19-Jul-03 01:10 AM
Well first of all I would like to remind that the suggestion of the massive forest fire is not a proposal at all, in fact it is a reality that is already in proceedings. It will on the part of history to conclude whether it is was beneficial or not to have a massive forest fire for a new generation of shoots to sprout and reshape the entire forest as suggested by that Maoist leader whoever he/she was. Im amazed that he/she whoever that Maoist leader was, he/she realistically reflected the situation and the reality of the nation. Whether I like it or not, one thing I know of the fact right at this point in the context of Nepal that the massive forest fire has already been ignited. It is very unfortunate that it happened.
Nepal and its people waited for a very long time and paid a very heavy price while waiting for various changes to take place in the course of history. The system (and the rulers) could have had recognized their needs and wants and at least have had attempted to full fill their needs as the nation went ahead into the time at lest to be stay competitive and compatible with rest of the population.
The massive forest fire would have had never taken place in the first place if the state had had opened up the dialogue with the different disadvantaged communities of Nepal which later went on make coalition and fought alongside with the Maoists. The year 1990 was late but it still it was not too late to stop that massive fire. There had been a plenty of groups who could have had ignited the fire and the Maoists were NOT the only among those groups. If the Maoists had have not ignited the fire, some other groups would have had done it. The only difference between the Maoists and other such groups is that the Maoists became the first groups to do so.
One should always NOT forgot at whose expense did the these trees grew up to become the massive trees and pillars. In the course of ever changing climates (times), was it not possible for these massive trees to allow other smaller tress (disadvantaged communities) to let grow along with them. Was it possible for these massive trees looked down towards the earth and see that the other smaller trees are not growing at all because these massive trees were growing so fast and big that they are blocking all the sunlight (awareness) therefore these smaller trees were dying out as they are unable to compete for sunlight (awareness) with these massive trees. While at the same time the massive network of roots of these massive trees are taking so much of the food (resources) from the ground (nation) that there is not a bit of food left for other smaller ones. Didnt these massive trees realize at points in time that the when the huge collection of small dead trees will fall to the ground to make a heap of dead and dry foliage on the surface of a ground which can catch fire very easily with a matter of sparks of fire or a lightening. When the dead trees and foliage on the ground catches fire, it sets the whole forest in fire which is a very well known fact.
Unfortunately, these smaller trees never had had chance to determine themselves on how they should grow because the sunlight (awareness) and food (resources) were not in their hands as they had been taken away by the massive trees. Therefore these smaller trees died as a lack of sunlight and food, fell to the ground. After ages, they pled up to form a heap of dead and dry foliage on the surface of the forest.
One day the lightening (the Maoists) struck and the sparks fire form the lightening ignited the fire on the dead and dry foliage on the ground therefore we are in the middle of a raging fire. There will be times when the fire will proceed with greater intensity (the state of emergency )and at other times the fire will proceed with lower intensity (ceasefire) and the direction and intensity of wind will determine how quickly and how much the fire will eat up the forest.
It is not very hard to tell that those massive trees and the pillars will be badly burnt to death in this massive fire. For the small dead trees it wont effect much and they wouldnt loose much because they never got anything and never had anything left to loose in the first place. It is hard to tell if there if any new shoots will sprout from the forest floor or if the forest will be encroached form the North or the South. It is possible that once the fire is out, if the encroachment comes form the south, they will likely to leave the surviving smaller trees and take down the massive ones because they will quickly find out that they cannot tend the massive burnt out trees as they dont want such burnt out trees to take the largest space. They are most likely to cut these massive ones and dump it.
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| KaleKrishna |
Posted
on 19-Jul-03 01:37 AM
Excelent Netaji, please do enligthen on the plight of all those that were part of the complex ecosystem (I mean the the Nepali tatva). However will not a directed fire (under control) be better then the raging flame that will spare none.
Is the notion cut the big to make it small and equal appropriate over pull the small to make it big better, (just curious).
Hoever, one more thing in case of big forest fire the most affected are the small bushes and shrubs compared to sal tree (ratio of destruction may be 100:10 respectively). Yes you are right with opening the space for sunlight and roots extension of the small bushes but how much is this affecting their growth (tulsi ko bot will never be sal whatever resource and space you provide it).
If the competition is between sal and sal, then why not cut down the ready one as well as those which shows sign of disease. Let the potential ones get the right opportunity to grow and flourish, rather then put the whole jungle into fire. The smoke, the ash, the dark colour, the barren landscape, the loss of habitat of millions of creatures will not be justified (on my opinion) over the campaign for some trees, which will also not hesitate to overshadow the growth of their undergrowth once they get the space (the present day netas, excluding you hai..).
I appreciate your logics, love to read your post, hence as an attempt to read more I am provoking you with my less inteligent queeries.
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| GP |
Posted
on 20-Jul-03 05:34 PM
Maoist talks failed. Next round of war will begin soon.
Yesterday, they closed office in KTM. As expected long time back, the Maoists were buying time to reinforce their strength against RNA. Now, in last six months they put RNA in barracks ' 5km radius and transported all the fire arms they needed.
Step by step, they are again ready for the attacks.
Yesterday, 100 Maoists attacked someone's home and looted property and arms whatever the house owner had. .......... (Nepal news reported).
In ceasefire, do you think 100 Maoists should attack a house? If attack is possible, do you think its a ceasefire?
It was just an illusion, to confuse people and to reinforce themselves. That is why Sharon (though, I don't support his actions) was against ceasefire with Palestinians. Now, the toll of this "6 months' subsidy of CEASEFIRE" will be very high. This time,
the death toll will rise from 8000 to 40,000 by the time next round of ceasefire will be announced, 2 years later i.e. around June 2005. Now, Maoists are only waiting for
the "CEASEFIRE" from sky, i.e. monsoon to stop. In upcoming Dashain, it should not be surprising for us when we will hear slaughter of 100s of ill equipped Police.
Just prepared to switch to Nepalnews.com or Kantipuronline.com or Sajha.com to read the death toll in first attack after Maoist formally announce the so called ceasefire (for me it was just Dhol-baja, not a real CEASEFIRE).
GP
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| GP |
Posted
on 20-Jul-03 05:36 PM
Nepal will be soon listed as a failed nation. 75% responsibility should go to Maoists, 10% to NC, another 10% to Misc Parties and UML, and last 5% to King G.
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| shaiva |
Posted
on 21-Jul-03 12:08 AM
Nepal became a failed state on October 04, 2002. Blame: 70% Maoists, 25% King, 5% all others.
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