| Gaz |
Posted
on 25-Nov-03 09:11 AM
15,000 to 25,000 deaths in next 5 yrs, if 'war' continues: Research
If the present "war" is to continue in Nepal, in the next five years, the total deaths will rise to 15,000 to 25,000, with security expenses costing over 100 billion rupees, predicted a research report unveiled on Tuesday.
Justifying its arguments, the report said, the economy of the country grew at an average of 4.66 percent during the pre-conflict period. "But during conflict years, it grew at an average of 3.41 percent," it said.
The report said it considered the present number of killings as the basic data for the prediction of the total casualties in the next five years. To date, above 9,000 have been killed in the violence, the report said.
On the swelling security expenses, the report said, "In the last five years alone, the security expenses have grown by almost 300 percent, due to the purchase of arms and ammunitions."
"In the last seven years of the bloody conflict, Nepal's economy lost 66.2 billion rupees worth of GDP. And in the next five years, at least 50 billion rupees will be lost in gross domestic product (GDP) at present value," according to the report.
On tourism, the report said Nepal is likely to lose more than 700,000 tourists in the next five years, which will result in the loss of 18 billion rupees in terms of money.
The report has painted bleak pictures in political, social, development, education, health and human rights sectors as well, if the "war" continues. "If the current situation continues, it will be a set back to democracy. The country will further move towards militarisation keeping democracy at bay," said the report.
From human rights perspective, the report said the enactment of anti-terrorist laws, increasing number of internally displaced people and frequent violation of human rights from the Maoists and the Government, among other factors, will make the human rights situation worse in the country, if "war" goes on.
On education, the report said, "the education sector has become the prime victim of war with a large number of school buildings burnt or destroyed, teachers being targeted by both the sides, schools being used as the battlefield and strikes being called frequently."
In a nutshell, the report said, the conflict is likely to continue and "Nepal is going to be a failed state."
"If conflict goes on, the democratic vacuum will continue; health facilities will be limited, the number of child soldiers and women victims will increase, freedom of expression will be further curtailed and National Human Rights Commission's role will be made less effective."
The report has also suggested measures to save the country from being a "failed state".
"What can be done now is to seriously and practically realise the importance of a peace dialogue and come to a political compromise on the part of the Maoists, the palace and the political parties," the report said.
"If the concerned key actors learn a lesson from the impacts of war, this will be the only way to go ahead positively," said the report.
A group of five scholars belonging to National Peace Campaign prepared the research report. nepalnews.com mr Nov 25
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