| Username |
Post |
| sparsha |
Posted
on 25-May-04 07:49 PM
Time has come for Padma Ratna Tuladhar to be the PM or what? Maoists are ready for dialogue, they could care less for constituent assembly, and most importantly they were not fighting to uproot monarchy. So, what is the king waiting for? He better send an invitation letter, with big Ganesh in aasirbad mudra at front, for "consultation" to Mr. PRT. Sounds like Mr. tuladhar is much better than Mr. pun, the Karsap.
As for five agitating parties and MKN, they can wait until PRT, Maoists, and the king sort out things.
KOL Report
KATHMANDU, May 26 - Padmaratna Tuladhar, one of the facilitators of the last peace talks between the government and the Maoists has said that Maoists may give up their demand for constituent assembly if the forthcoming government could initiate peace talks genuinely.
Speaking during a program in the capital Tuesday, Tuladhar said the Maoists “might opt to comprise” if the upcoming government could come forward with appropriate alternatives to draft a new constitution.
“The Maoists are ready to negotiate with the upcoming government, irrespective of who heads it, should the dialogue aims at giving a political outlet to the current crisis.” said Tuladhar.
Tuladhar also added that the Maoist uprising was not aimed at uprooting monarchy. (hbt)
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| Badmash |
Posted
on 25-May-04 08:06 PM
If it takes Padma Ratna Tuladhar, then Mr Tuladhar it is. Let the peace talks begin! Let it not end like the last one.
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| ashu |
Posted
on 25-May-04 09:01 PM
Girija wants the Parliament to be re-instated.
Why? So that he can emerge as the majority leader, be the PM and then do the elections, if need be, under his watch and abuse the state resources to win big.
Any other arrangement is simply unacceptable to Girija.
Deuba wants his government to be re-instated.
Why? So that he can go back to being the PM, and then do the elections, if need be, under his watch and use the state resources to win big time. Any other arrangement is unacceptable to Deuba.
Madhav Nepal wants to be the next PM
Why? So that his UML can do the elections under his watch, and win big time. Any
other arrangement is unacceptable to him. Nepal is NOT keen to see Girija or Deuba
back in power, and neither are they to see Nepal at Singha Durbar anytime soon.
RPP people want to have their own PM, maybe Pashupati SJB Rana.
Why? Having fielded two of their colleagues (Chand and S B Thapa), they think
they have a chance to nominate the third one too. To them, it doesn't matter
whether the country is burning, so long as they get their paalo at being the PM, one
by one.
Whoever gets to be the PM, the other two small parties want some sort of "sarba-daliya" arrangement so that they too can sneak in as cabinet members and benefit
from pieces of electoral actions, and win big at the eventual choo.nab.
All of the above politicians, for obvious reasons, repeatedly tell the King that nobody
but them and them alone can make the elections happen and bring the Maoists to the table.
But their assertions do NOT mean anything.
One can argue that the political parties quarrel with one another because they KNIW that hving one fo their guys as the PM in the short-run is the surest way to MAXIMIZE their chances of leading their parties to electoral victory by abusing the state machineries.
The King, meantime, wants to nominate his own PM so that the Palace can start
talks with the Maoists and start preparing for the elections under its own watch.
Like the politicians, the Palace won't hesitate to abuse the state machinery to make
its own durbariya people sweep away the "corrupt politicians" [King's words] in the
next election. By that time, having had hs own people on board as elected politicians, the King can then step back and say that he handed back the power to elected reps.
This arrangement, if it takes place, will make the King more like the Chairman of Nepal Incorporated while the new PM will be the designated CEO. Any other arrangement is unacceptable to the King whose distaste for the present netas is raw, crude and emotionally virulent.
My prediction?
Unless the ridiculously rigid Girija enters the heaven's gates in the next few months
making i easier for the political parties to then have an opening to rally around a set of common causes against the King's interventonist approaches, the King will continue to benefit from the parties' disarray and, given his personality, will bulldoze his way to
have his own PM who will try to initiate talks with the Maoists and do the the elections . .. and, mark my word, AGAIN FAIL by the middle of the year 2005.
And the sad results?
Meantime, Maoists will have lots of time to consolidate their bases.
Bandhs and blockades, more of which have been planned for June, will make life
difficult and expensive for all of us in Nepal. And more people will start queuing up outside foreign embassies to get the hell out of Nepal.
The King fancies himself as a corporate chieftain, with technocratic solutions to Nepal's problems, and that's perfectly fine.
One inconvenient fact is that the King cut his teeth as the CEO/Chairman/Owner of certain Nepali private sector companies NOT in the rough-and-tumble of competitive marketplaces and NOT with innovative and risk-taking entrepreneurial strategies,
but as a partner with primarily risk-averse crony-capitalistic fiefdoms.
And I, as a mere student of strategy, am not sure whether such a background
prepares one to step up, to think broadly, to take ncertainties and ambiguities into account and then take risks to really win.
oohi
ashu
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| karmapa |
Posted
on 25-May-04 09:21 PM
Read the 'may...ifs', and 'might...ifs' in Padma Ratna's statements,
eg:
*Maoists 'may' give up their demand for constitutent assembly 'if'...
*Maoists 'might' opt to compromise 'if'...
Apparently Padma Ratna Tuladhar is trying to second guess
the Maoists. I wonder if he has even done enough homework.
Sparsha, what makes you think the Maoists could care less about
constituent assembly?
Peace is an abstract concept but if all concerned are to negotiate,
they must qualify peace - what kind of peace on what conditions,
on whose terms, etc etc.
I see peace ...under three kinds of scenarios:
Scenario I: Go back to the status quo of the Jan Andolan (which is
what the palace prefers since this tilts the balance of power in its
favour)
Scenario II: Go with the five-party alliance's agenda (which go
beyond the status quo of the Jan Andolan) to decide on the kind
of constitutional monarchy it can co-exist with, apparently
Scenario I is not acceptable to the alliance (see their 18-point agenda,
esp the army under the control of the parliament)
Scenario III: Maoists all along (and now increasingly student leaders and
politicised youth) have been calling for a 'republic', although this is for
peoples to decide should a constituent assembly ever become a reality.
My two-cents re:
Scenario I
Going back to the status quo of the Jan Andolan is risky, for who is to
say we will not slide further back into a Panchayat-like
system, what with so much power invested in the palace. We have reasons
to mistrust the palace: lokendra bdr chanda, surya bdr thapa, kamal thapa
(all mandales).I would argue that because the outcome of the Jan Andolan
failed to provide a 'check and balance' that we saw twelve years of political
instability. Going back to this status quo means that all the ugliness of the
last 12-14 years may surface again in some form. Peace may be
ephemeral - a flash in the pan.
Scenario II:
This is for me the ideal solution, but don't know how this can be achieved,
what with the army and geopolitics in the post 9/11 world favoring the palace.
Also certain sections of civil society have called on the alliance to water down their
agenda to make them more palatable for the palace...so that dialog can begin,
I find this problematic. Even if the alliance settles with the king for an all-party
govt to be headed by say PM of its choice the onus will be on the all-party govt to
deliver (and there is no gurantee of success), if not the palace will be
vindicated and its argument for 'constructive role' for the monarch (which
many read as 'regression') will be strengthened.
Scenario III
I have a mix feeling about Scenario III. It is as much about revolution (if
you take the Maoists' modus operandi) as about evolution (if you take the
increasing cries for 'a republic' from student leaders and politicised youth).
Scenario I is least costly to achieve - scenario II more costly to achieve -
scenario III most costly to achieve.
The question is: Are the Nepali polity and peoples prepared to pay a premium
price (amidst guns and violence) for more legitimate and durable peace, or
will they simply settle for peace that may just be a mirage? Sooner or later
they must decide this,for we are increasingly heading into a paradoxical situation
where we have constitutional king and multiparty system but no constitutional
democracy (ruling by 'adhyadesh') and multiparty democracy (the last two
governments were hand-picked) or toward an economy cripping, mass exodus
inducing blood soaked state, a failed state.
-------------------------------------------------------
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| HahooGuru |
Posted
on 25-May-04 10:03 PM
Let me put my scenarios:
I. King will again appoint panchayati man as PM, who knows Rajeswor could be
PM, as a medal to his royalist party.
2. Girija will die soon. Then, Makune will be made PM, so that Day time
UML and night time Maoists will become night time UML too. Khan ra thugna kai
lagi Maobadi bannu pare pachi UML leadership will be Ok as long as they
are in power. Those who have tasted 1995's 9 month rule under UML
know very well that UML cadres are hungry for state resources and UML
leadership also knows that they are losing cadres because of freedom of
looting in Maoist party, and useless of being teeth and nailless UML cadre.
3. Deoba or some othe bhiringi lageko man will be made PM for few months and ejected again. Remember the scenario between 2007 saal to 2015saal, King is trying to repeat that 8 years.
4. IF PRT's statements come after consulting with Maoists, then, Maoists
might be in rush to capture the government under current chaos. Its a good
chance for them. BRB who smiled last time when a reporter asked what would
you do if you are offered PM position and few months later when he could not
get it, he denounced the offer..... We all know he is hungry for that Post.
So, Maoist may make a deal of bringing maoist green suit owners getting
another green suits in RNA and quit the current drama of "peoples war".
5. Congress I in India will probably squeeze out Maoists from India, because
its Indira Gandhi who killed 1000 naxalites and their party always hates
hardcore communists, well, Jyoti Basu will not help Nepali Maoists, I guess.
6. Just a least possibility: If Nani maiya dahal could be MP from KTM, why not
Shailaja become PM of Nepal. King might opt her. King will always opt a weak
person so that he can always tell "You are fired" because "you were inept".
Hallai Hallako Desh yo mero Nepal, as Bhup said. So, I have right to make
my predictiosn.
HG
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| jivman |
Posted
on 26-May-04 01:59 AM
Please visit me for if ever there is so called Sajha Mantralaya so that we can chat whole day and night for free for everyone in Nepal. Asfu pani ali paisa banaunu paryo. Not in the name of democracy, may be in the name of sajha and internet.
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| NSShrestha |
Posted
on 26-May-04 06:38 AM
Karmapa,
Nice analysis.
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| Deep |
Posted
on 26-May-04 07:13 AM
Heri aba ma ni peldinu paryo afulai lagya kura--tak tuk parera. Huna ta afu politikal pandit, jajaman kehi haina tyai ni lekham lekham lagyo--ke garne?
Ashu, It, perhaps, is a grave unfortunate for people and the nation to wish a person "death" as a potential solution to (an) existing problem (s). It is more of a failure on the part of other leaders and their believers to seek death of a leader rather than strip him of his leadership without calling up on the Yamaraj. I think you have presented a valid argument on the current situation of Nepal. I also enjoyed Karampa's analysis. However, he posed a question (perhaps the question of the day) and skipped. I am talking about " Are the Nepali polity and peoples prepared to pay a premium price (amidst guns and violence) for more legitimate and durable peace, or
will they simply settle for peace that may just be a mirage?" Who is/are supposed to answer this question and how tangible should the answer be? Also, what is the "premium" price? and what guarantee is there that the premium price will legitimate and durable peace? One more thing, by saying, " Apparently Padma Ratna Tuladhar is trying to second guess the Maoists", are you trying to third guess, Karampa?
la ahile lai yatti ho. Narayena Narayena.
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| Hellbound |
Posted
on 26-May-04 07:48 AM
Karmapa, good points. I also think that PRT hasn't done enough homework for peace talk and he is just guessing that they may give up constituent assembly.
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| rbaral |
Posted
on 26-May-04 08:40 AM
Karampa has put forth a very scintillating question.
That thought to be a mirage from a distance might turn out to be a little puddle, though not a sea. If a puddle quenches your thirst, why care?
Morale: If size would ALWAYS matter, why the word 'quality'?
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| Mitra 2 |
Posted
on 26-May-04 08:42 AM
Mero euta sathile bhanthyo ' Bikasit desh aruko desh.ma ladera faida linchhan, Bikasonmukh desh.ma aa-aafu ladera faida linchhan'. Aakhir khanu sablai chha, marna-marna chhodera milera/milayera nai faida linu ni! Kam.se.kam majdoor (janta) lai kaam ma napathai sadhai Nepal banda garera khana kaha bata aauchha, jaska lagi ladai chalirachha? Aba ta bideshi sahayog pani anna ko satta bandook ra goli aairachha. Yo goli khane ra khwaune kaam chai Nepali le nagare hune bhanya!
Huna ta yo bhabisya ko barema twaak (guess) hanne kaam khagolsastri ko nai ho. Euta ko shir ma ta naulakh tarai chamki ra dekinchha re. Euta tara barabar kati kshayti hune ho, aafu lai ta tyesma po peer chha.
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