| Username |
Post |
| ashu |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 04:01 AM
How many soldiers does the Royal Nepal Army have?
Rough estimates put the (high) number at around: 60,000 in total and low number around 40,000. (Experts among us, please correct!)
Let's go with the higher estimate: 60,000.
Of that, let's say -- for the sake of doing this hisab -- that 10,000 or so are serving as UN Peacekeepers in places like Lebanon, East Timor, Sierra Leone
and so on.
That leaves: 50,000 soldiers in Nepal to fight against the Maoists.
Per zilla, that's like: 50,000/ 75 = 667 soldiers.
But consider that zillas like Kailali, Dang, Bardiya and others are big-- several sizes of entire Kathmandu Valley. And some zillas like Kathmandu have a huge military presence (i.e. more than 667 soldiers) just to give people more of a sense of security and all that.
What that means is FEWER than 667 soldiers are available elsewhere -- in relatively neglected zillas such as the case in Achham was last week.
It's conceivable then that there are many other zillas where, like Achham, the presence of RNA soldiers is RELATIVELY negligible, with fewer than 667
soldiers.
Consider too that Achham's case was the THIRD time in the last three
months that for some reason the Army ko intelligence failed -- failed miserably.
Now, don't get me wrong: I think we have the greatesty Army on the planet,
and that's all fine. It's just that as its supporter, I just wish our Army would be more PR-minded, launch a more aggressive Info War, show some evidence of solid strategic work to inspire our, well, confused-by-Achham-ko-massacre confidence.
***************
How many Maoists are there?
No one knows for sure, but informal estimates put them at around: 20,000 or
so.
That's like: 270 Maoists per zilla.
But bear in mind that this is just guess work for the purpose of this hisab.
**********
Now, consider the "unfair" advantages the Maoists have:
They have been using the Tarai ko jungles, Tarai ko open spaces and pahad ko jungles plus terrain for warfare for the last six years. In other words, their unfair advantage is that they know the terrain really well because, well, they had to know it really well for their own survival. They have this tested, proven and tried (unfair) knowledge of the land that the Royal Nepal Army may find hard to
master in a short time.
Consider too that the Emergency is going to be lengthened.
And if so, that means, from the Maoists' point of view, three more months of simply muddling through by killing a few people here and there, looting the banks, and basically waiting for the monsoon in late May, June and July.
Once Monsoon arrives, the Maoists again will have the strategic upper hand. That's because it is just impossible to fight with the Maoists in Nepali pahadi
jungles with torrential rain pouring down and with attendant fogs up in the pahadi areas. Evidence? Just remember last years' debacle in Rolpa/Rukum . . . where the Army had had a hard time setting the kidnapped policemen free.
As much as I hate the Maoists, this, I think, is their strategic game plan.
a) Press for three more months of Emerhengy (this they will get).
b) Spend three more months fighting: trying to weaken the morale of their enemy.
c) If need be, use the monsoon to their advantage to launch further deadly assaults.
End-result?
Basically leave the government with no choice but to invite them to talks. After all, the Maoists seem to be betting on the fact that:
a) no one likes long dragged-out war and people will get tired of it after a while.
b) the morale in the Army will go down -- little by little
c) the government will be under pressure from all sides to come to a peaceful
solution
And when all these happen, this would lead to one thing for the Maoists: Agree to the government's desperate call, go to Kathmandu with an upper hand, and start dictating terms to the government . . . forming the new government
This, I would imagine -- some hard-nosed Maoist strategists -- would
think like . . . but I would be more than happy to be proven wrong, wrong
and wrong.
But what do you say?
What are your thoughts?
(Since postings like this can easily be misinterpreted and twisted, let me make this disclaimer that I have posted this here strictly as some 'game of strategy' -- NOTHING more. To interpret this anymore than that is to mistake the whole point of doing thought experiements that help us understand the underlying issues facing Nepal and Nepali societies.)
oohi
ashu
ktm,nepal
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| Gosaikunda |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 04:39 AM
Ashu Jee pls note that Maobadis are more 20,000.
Contd from ashu Jee's post:
Radio Nepal Bholi,
Pradhan mantri Baburam bhattaraile "Maobadi" andolan ka ladakuharulai
sahi Nepali senama bharti garne tarfa sarkar katibadda bhaeko kura bataunubhaeko chha.
Ukta kura uhale aja Rukumma ayojit 1 bishal amshabhalai sambondhan gardai bataunubhaeko ho.
Ghriha mantri "Pushpa Kamal dahal" le ukta abasharma maobadi ladaku haru deshka(=mera) bhagya nirmata bhaeko kura bataunu bhayo.
12 barshe tanasahi ... byavasthako antyapachhi prapta janabad (=Mero post) bachauna sabaiko uttardaitwa bhaeko kura uhale bataunu bhayo.
...
...
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| Mao ko dad |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 10:10 AM
Gosaikunda kukur
Ani healteh mantri ley tero mum lai nacked parera ghumanuney pani bhaneko cha.Bastarrd ghanta baburam and prchanda are PM and HM .Dream on jungli kukur haru muji bahun kukur saley .Marney bela ma pani kira parcha tini haru k mookh ma
Jay Nepal
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| Trailokya Aryal |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 11:26 AM
ashu dai,
pretty scary huh? moi aussie hope that you would be proven wrong. I too think that its about time that we start to take this issue seriously, and find out the cause(s) that started this whole "fighting".
bhagwaan pashupatinath le hami sabaiko raxya garun.
Trailokya Aryal
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| B2 |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 12:18 PM
Gosaikunda...two people can not run a country. Who will your other mantris be? A bunch of gaunles from Rolpa? a bunch of saraswati campus students who spent seven years to complete their intermediate? Uneducated, unsophisticated, no vision, just like the current politicians who run the country? how will the country be any different under the maobadis? having good intentions for the country is one thing, but do you have the kind of leaders who can turn the country around?
show that you have educated and qualified leaders who can rule a country in the 21st century, and maybe you will get more supporters from where it really counts. otherwise, your movement will be crushed by another revolution from within Nepal and tons of support from the international community. remember the taliban?
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| Da Ge |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 04:06 PM
What I know from few years back is that the total number of army is around 45000 and more than 10000 are used to protect the palace and Royal family, not the public. So do the math with rest of them.
What I know from the people in my old village is that it only took less than two hundred maoists to take over our gaun bikash samiti and the high school. If same is the situation in other areas, army can only support the protection of big cities and some zilla sadakmukams.
Well, if they can survive few more months with Emergency declared, Maoist difinitely have upper hand. I hope I am wrong and it does not come to that situation.
I don't know how long the government can last with high military expenditure from already emptied national dhukuti.
Just my $0.02
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| Gosaikunda |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 05:53 PM
Mo ko Dad Jee,
Thanks for your strict opinion.
Probably my father will be the Health minister and will bring my mum here and there.
Yes in Maoist there are Gaules from rukum and Rolpa.
Pls note that, Ser Bahadur Jee, Girija Jee, Bhattarai Jee are all from village.
Could u show me one example of PM from KTM?
You seems to be against Bahuns, it doesn't matter for me. Tara Nepalko Rajniti
Bahun ra Kshetry bahek aruko hatama 1000 barsha pachhi pani jandaina. 1,2 jana Newar bhane chhirna saklan, bhaunko ... chatdai.
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| Biswo |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 06:12 PM
Ashu:
I think your 'math' is very interesting, and I found it very insightful, a testimony of
your wide range of knowledge.
The fact is this : our army isn't peripatetic army. Inside Nepal, it has been
concentrated in the barracks since the time of Bhimsen Thapa. It doesn't have
its own information department, and National Investigation Agency, thanks
to the Congressi_karan by the likes of Khum Bdr Khadka, is house of inferior bunch
of duplicate-certificate-holder placard-carrying Congressis from Dang and vicinity.
No wonder army wasn't informed of a massive attack in both Dang/Acham.
Army's defense tactic was , though dismaying it may be for those of us who
wanted to seek immediate end to mayhem by homicidal bunches, therefore not
a bad tactic in the start. Maoists were assimilated in villages, and army wasn't
prepared to launch the indescriminate attack on villages. In stead, it wanted to win
heart.(A friend of mine who worked in military dispensary somewhere in
Rukum/Rolpa/Salyan(Gosh, they sound so similar to me!) recalled treating one
wounded Maoists back in 98s). I think launching an attack in Rolpa without
any aerial protection is very dangerous, specially since the districts, I have
heard, are badly mine fested.So, its defensive posture until Acham kaanda was
a very good one in view of lack of inside information about Maoists.
I am not sure if winter and rugged terrain gives benefit to Maoists. But it is certain,
if the war dragged on too long, and if Congressi bickering goes on like that of
present time, we would be in some dire situation.I am so sad to find that the
fallen army jawaans were not saluted by their commander-in-chief. None of the
ministers ever goes to the army barracks. To tell the truth, Nepali press and
Sajha.com are probably the most morale-lifting elements of Nepali army right now
:-) [In sajha.com some one even suggested fund raiser for them!]
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| 13-thum |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 07:09 PM
The scenario elaborated by Ashuji is likely to happen in not very distant future, even if we wish otherwise. I would like to add few more points to that.
The division of army is going to be much smaller than 667. Almost 50 percent of the army will be stationed in Kathmandu valley. If they disseminate more army in remote districts, they will start attacking Kathmandu, which will force the government to bring them back. I will not be surprised if they bring back the army from remote districts substantially after few attacks to VIPs in Kathmandu.
Maoist have shown again and again that they have the capacity to attack simultaneously in many districts from east to west. For example, they attacked Dang and Solu almost at the same time and now when army are going offensive in Acham, they are attacking in Salyan. This will limit the army’s capability for massive offence against them in few districts.
The morale of Maobadi are higher than ever where as the same can not be said for the army and other civil servants. The morale of next cdo in Solu and Acham will be really questionable, specially when the deceased cdo informed the government about the potential attack couple of weeks before it happened and still there was no preventive measure taken by the government.
The intelligence of Army may not have failed as miserably as presumed, as the Acham incidence was expected weeks before it happened. In the current situation, it can be expected that most of the CDOs will request for more security forces in their district with an array of reasons. Where will the central government send the forces and from where?
Even though the support for Maoist is very slim in the middle to upper class family of cities and overseas, the support in villages where people do not have enough to eat are seeing Maoist as a viable alternative. If anybody is unhappy with the current government with their massive corruption and nepotism, they will think that only Maoist can solve this problem. For example, when a teacher is transferred from his home town to another place to bring some Congresi in that place and he can do nothing about it, he will become Maoist. If some intelligent guy who can not get job because of some Congressi and UML or he can not give money to minister like GRJ, he will see only alternative to this system is Maoist. This is why I say exponential growth of Maoist.
There is no way that the maoist can be wiped out in the current situation. The only way to do this is corruption free good governance by NC and UML. They should show the people that this system will be able to deliver and they do not need to look for alternatives. Its easy to talk about massive army operation, but we should not forget how innocent villagers will suffer in these remote districts. How many innocent people will die, how many innocent will be in custody and so on. If you don’t care about that then what is the difference between you and them. Will you talk about massive army operation if your home is in Rukum and you brother is in army custody with the suspicion of being Maoist because of some Congressi leader even when he is completely innocent.
13-thum
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| HahooGuru |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 07:28 PM
13-thum wrote:
For example, when a teacher is transferred from his home town to another place to bring some Congresi in that place and he can do nothing about it, he will become Maoist. If some intelligent guy who can not get job because of some Congressi and UML or he can not give money to minister like GRJ, he will see only alternative to this system is Maoist.
----
What will happen if you replace "Congressi" by Maoist and Maoists by
Congressi, lets see the final result.
For example, when a teacher is transferred from his home town to another place to bring some Maoist supporter in that place and he can do nothing about it, he will BE GET KILLED for opposing the MAOISTS. If some intelligent guy who can not get job because of not being a Maoist supporter or he can not give money to a local Maoist leader, he will see only alternative to this is DEATH or
his Arms and legs get ut by Maoists.
----
The experience tells it, not me.
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| Digital Maniac |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 07:41 PM
With Due Respect and Ashu's Game Theory, Pranchanda's claim and Kunda Dixits comment, Indian Army could be brought in to Nepal to fight the terrorists. The funny thing is the Maoist heads are hiding in India all this time. If India wanted they could make it tougher for the Maoists to survive in India. Wondering why that ain't happening. In the 1990 we had trade block which helped our Democratic movement, right now the Indians again seem to be playing some game-- tightening their grip when we are very hurt by the economic downturn. One can ponder if India is somehow backing the Maoist to justify their future presence in Nepal?
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| 13-thum |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 09:40 PM
HahoJi,
I was giving some of the examples of the reasons for the exponential growth of Maoists in last six years. The number of transfers to suit the Congressi worker is far far more than that for Maoist as you said.
We must understand the reality that Maoist have become very powerful in recent years and such growth is not possible without the public support. Weather we like it or not, they have become a force massive public support which can not be taken lightly.
This problme can not be controlled by the security forces alone. If the present system porves to be hopeless as it has been in the last 10 years, people will be forced to think about the alternatives. The system that can not deliver and do not show any hope as well, it has to go wether it is Panchayat or Congressi Raj. The sytem can not live forever on the basis of history and theory only.
WAKE UP CONGRESSI AND UML, IF YOU STILL ACT THE WAY YOU HAVE BEEN ACTING LAST 10 YEARS, YOU WILL BE HISTORY. FIRST STEP TOWARDS GOOD GOVERNANCE CAN BE TO PUT THE CORRUPTS LIKE KHUME, GRJ, GIRIJA, BAMDEV, RAWAL,...., BEHIND THE BARS AND NATIONALIZE THEIR ASSETS.
13-thum
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| HahooGuru |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 09:51 PM
It is not system's failure, it is the failure of leaders, and if
we can educate peoples teach what is freedom and what
is democracy, we can change leadership. But, Maoists'
system as a whole is worst if it comes to front line.
Remind that Taliban also had full public support and they
were dismantling Buddha's salik .... But, its all illusion
and they are trying to create "PURE" communist state
where they have no tolerance for those who do not
supports Maoists. Thats crystal clear whether you like
or not, its Maoist style, as Taliban had done.
Taliban = Nepali Maoist = Taliban , I mean I don't see
anything more than Talibanism in Nepali Maoists.
To take revenge on your own enemy (i.e. corrupts)
don't invite another evil, which will turn on you once
it finishes your enemy.
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| Gosaikunda |
Posted
on 21-Feb-02 09:53 PM
Maoist is the only option to develop our nation made by villages.
Dear friends here in Sajha, be I'm sure that You know noting about the villages.
Maoist Goverment will slightly affaect 3% Nepalis. It will improve the nation, will be on favour of 97% Nepalese.(Dalit, Majdoor, Kisan, Karmachari, ...)
Hahooguru, timro kura sunda ta malai lagyo, Transfer of teacher by source* fource is the responsibility of leaders. I don't believe on it. It should be done by
Jilla Sikshya Karyala according to the priority of the individual.
Time will show you not me.
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| Nomad |
Posted
on 22-Feb-02 12:30 AM
I think one front where we could begin to attack the maobadis is to cut off their cash flow. why does a bank in achham need 2 crore rupees in reserves?
One reason the Maoists have been able to survive so far and and grow so fast is that they have deep pockets, from the banks they have been looting. If the government slashed the reserves at local banks, the Maoists would be cut off financially.
Ond once that is done, they wouldn't be able to pay their existing cadre, who have been in the Maoist army because they are being paid (and have a resemblence of a job), amongst other reasons. If sustained for a long time, a financial squeeze might help fight the Maoists. After all, we don't grow the coca like in Colombia or the opium in Afganisthan that can support rebels.
I don't understand why the financial aspect of the war is not debated in the public. Trying to fight off the Maoists with muscle power just won't work. It has not worked anywhere, look at the Philippines and Colombia. They outflank the police/army strategically because they know the local terrain so much better.
If we want to win the war against the Maoists, it has to be some other means than the gun. And cutting off their finances would go a long way, to begin with.
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| Ashok |
Posted
on 22-Feb-02 05:09 PM
Good math! But once the morale of the RA goes down and the RA is on the defensive, the maoists will want more for their battle (if they agree to settle with the monarchy, less lives will be lost for the better; but it's doubtful). The government now should never unilaterally and unconditionally propose for talks -- the time is gone. Now the government needs to fight and dismantle the rebels, hang some top leaders and then start negotiations.
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| HahooGuru |
Posted
on 22-Feb-02 05:44 PM
Ashok,
We need bold peoples like you. What you wrote is
the demand of time and demand of public and demand of
the world that seeks peace and freedom and prosperarity...
RNA should go first offensive, trim the Maoists hanga-binga
and then, start defensive role with the Trunk. Like Tamil
tigers, in years, they, will slowly come to main stream. Nepal
needed such war, to let people know what has really happened
in China, Cambodia, Afginstant ... wherever extremisits and
it should also let people know why do you need Freedom,
and what kind of freedom, (its not freedom to kill peoples,
its not freedom to walk on the middle of the road), freedom
should be practiced without snatching others freedom. Nepalis
did not understand what is freedom, thus, Maoists got extra
freedom and peoples like it and now getting taste of Maoists.
The too much propaganda of communism has to settle somewhere
with real experience and information. Its time they are getting.
Just with the death of 100 army cadres, RNA should not get
demoralized, that shoudl be different story from Police. Army
personnel should know that when they go to battle field, they
should not scared by seeing their fellow armymen dying. They
should keep on moving ahead. This is what on ex-Gurkha
was telling who was fighting Indo-Pak war. They will rather
become more bold and will get confused, but, will wipe out
their enemy. "Do or Die", thats the order in Army. I am
confident RNA will fight and get victory. Its the demand of
time "Fight with terrorism".
hGxP
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