| HahooGuru |
Posted
on 23-Apr-02 10:05 PM
Don't get panicked with CK Tiwari: He was always representing extreme
communists for long time and claiming himself an unbiased writer.
---------Its not you evaluate yourself, its others should evaluate you
and your postings. (Own evaluation by himself is call propaganda, so
CK Tiwari was running Propaganda ... haina ta).
Date: 11 Nov 94 11:58:05 EST From: "Chitra K. Tiwari" <74641.3624@compuserve.com> To: Subject: Hung-Parliament? Monkey-House?? Message-Id: <941111165804_74641.3624_BHW52-1@CompuServe.COM>
ELECTIONS IN NEPAL: A PROGNOSTIC SURVEY
By Chitra K. Tiwari, Ph.D.
Nepali people will line-up to elect 205 members of parliament on Tuesday, November 15. Many independent observers and sources close to diplomatic establishments in Kathmandu are predicting a hung parliament (monkey-house!). They have observed indifference among the ordinary people. The voter turn-out is likely to be less by at least 5 percentage point this year compared to the 1991 election in which 65 percent people had voted.
NC party's three year old government is a study in political turmoil, reeling from charges of corruption, incompetence and nepotism. Supporters and critics both argue that the NC government committed many of the same blunders that contributed to the downfall of democracy in 1960. The party did not learn lessons from the past. Political analysts point out to miserable condition of government. There is a tremendous law and order problem, violation of human rights, corruption, nepotism and gross mismanagement of the economy and the entire country. The party's supremo, Ganesh Man Singh, has resigned from the party arguing that PM Koirala will tamper the votes. Although Mr. Singh's following in the party is marginal, he still commands the moral authority. His resignation will hurt the party in the polls.
Many observers are predicting a hung-parliament in the aftermath of elections and the political instability as a result. A total of 71 political parties emerged following the announcement of the elections but the election commission declined registration of 6 parties on grounds they were communal and sectarian. Of the 65 registered only 25 parties have fielded their candidates for a 205 member lower house of parliament. There are 1,443 candidates out of which 384 are independents.
In 1991 elections there were 1,345 candidates out of which 219 were independents. Only 40 parties were registered then but only 20 had fielded candidates. Of the 20 parties only 8 parties had succeeded to win seats ranging from one to 110. The Nepali Congress Party receiving the majority seats had formed the government.
Reports coming from Nepal clearly spells for a three-way contest in many constituencies between the NC, UML and RPP. Other parties may emerge here and there but they have no national significance.
Questions have been raised whether the elections to be held under Prime Minister Koirala will be fair and impartial. The attentive public has clearly seen Prime Minister Girija Koirala's manipulation of the government owned media such as the Radio Nepal, the Nepal TV, the Gorkhapatra and the Rising Nepal. In addition to media manipulation, the government also is misusing public resources. Official vehicles, openly used in the beginning, are now being converted into private vehicles with phony license plates. Royal Nepali Army resources were blatantly misused by Mr. Koirala when he flew in their helicopter to make campaign speeches in several districts. Despite Election Commission's appeal to abide by the Code of Conduct the Girija government is continuously bulldozing. A 400-member National Election Observation Committee(NEOC) has been formed to monitor the impartiality of elections. NEOC also is coordinating the visit of 100 international observers and has despatched more than 1000 domestic observers in several districts. Given the bulldozing attitude of Koirala government, the job of domestic as well as international observers (actually, electoral tourists!) is likely to be very tough.
While all political parties in Nepal suffer from internal division, the division and rift within the Nepali Congress is highly pronounced. Prime Minister Koirala's faction is not happy at all with official list of NC candidates issued by President Bhattarai because the list contains 36 dissident members who had pulled Koirala's leg. President Bhattarai, on the other hand, is accused of distributing party tickets to Koirala supporters in unfavorable constituencies. The NC's former Supremo, Ganesh Man Singh, is supporting the dissident candidates in 60 constituencies. These dissidents are expected to give tough fight to NC's official candidates. About 10 of them are expected to win while the other 50 have MAD (mutually assured destruction) capability.
Prime Minister Koirala, too, has fielded his own dissidents against the "group of 36" listed in official party list. Many independent observers are predicting that the NC will hardly bag one-third of the parliamentary seats (68 seats) and hence will be unable to form the government even in coalition with other parties.
The Nepal Communist Party (Unified Marxist & Leninist-UML), too, is divided between majority and minority groups. One of its leader belonging to minority group, Mohan Chandra Adhikary, has left the party accusing the leadership for bowing to royal palace. But his exit from the party is not likely to hurt the party as much as it was expected in the beginning. In fact, the UML is expected to emerge as a larger party with about 95 seats.
The third major party in the dissolved parliament with 9 seats, the United People's Front(UPF) has split into two factions. One faction led by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai has advocated boycott of elections while the other faction led by N. G. Vaidhya is participating. Because of the split this party is likely to lose about 6 of its earlier seats saving only 3 seats.
The fourth party in the dissolved parliament with 6 seats, the Sadvavana Party, too, is split. Some of its leaders have deserted the party to join the Nepali Congress. Nonetheless, this party is expected to win 2 seats. Sadvabana party's platform is overshadowed by Republican Janabadi Morcha, which is expected to make fresh gain of about 3 seats.
The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), a party of erstwhile absolute monarchists, is expected to do much better this time. The party leadership expects to bag as many as 40 seats, but knowledgeable observers believe that RPP which was routed in 1991 elections with only four seats could win as many as 15 seats.
Masal, considered to the extreme Maoist underground party, is expected to win 5 seats. Masal's strength is concentrated around Rapti and Dhaulagiri Zones.
Nepal Workers' and Peasants' Party is expected to maintain its previous strength of 2 seats.
Nepal National Liberation Front, an ethnic party led by Gore Bahadur Khapangi, is likely to make fresh gain of 2 seats from eastern mountain constituencies.
In fact, the NCP(UML), with an organized cadre base, is expected to emerge as a larger party. Some even believe that NCP(UML) will capture majority. A strong feeling is emerging in the country to allow communists to run the government. The point in such feelings is that Nepal has already experienced the mismanaged rule of both the royalists( panchas) and the NC party but the country has never tested the ruling capability of the communists. Moreover, the UML has turned itself into a social-democratic party in everything but in name. The party has no flavor of classical communism in the tradition of Stalin and Mao although it continues to call itself a party of Marxist and Leninists.
Foreign powers, especially India and Western donor countries, are nervously observing the political developments in Nepal. They are nervous in the possibility of UML's emergence. Indian journalists and columnists with close connections at New Delhi's South Block have begun writing articles in Indian dailies such as the Times of India and the Hindustan Times with a clear intention to boost the morale of the Koirala faction of the Nepali Congress. About 10 days ago an Indian Army General visited Pokhara and distributed about 10 thousand blankets to the families of ex-Gorkhas. (This is not a rumor.) Indian sensitivities have grown due to UML's campaign promise to review all unequal treaties, including the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship.
The rumors have persisted in Nepal that the agents of India's intelligence agency, the RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), are telling ex-Gorkhas to vote for NC. There is yet another rumor, which perhaps and hopefully may be a cynical one, that some conspirators are conspiring for a Burmese scenario of not handing over the power in the event of leftist forces' victory in the elections.
Even if the NCP(UML) emerges victorious in the elections, the status-quo is not likely to change. The UML has now changed itself into a social democratic party except in name. There is a current inside the party for a change in the name of the party to reflect its latest political programs. The UML, in fact, has taken over NC's ideology of democratic socialism. The party has accepted monarchy and has vowed to maintain good relations with India. The leaders of the UML party are vigorously engaged to convince the western donor representatives, including that of the United States, that the communist government will play by the rules of democracy and respect human rights. If the UML can prove its intentions after couple months of coming to power, the relevancy of NC which has already eroded in the domestic context, is likely to erode in regional and international context, too.
|
