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| Username | Post |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 06:39 AM
Maoist and Peace Talks Recent press release from Maoist has laid out two options to salvage the country from current crisis. First, in their own words, roundtable meeting - including all political parties, representatives of intelligentsia and King - for progressive political solution and drafting new constitution from election of constituent assembly will be the key issue. Second, decisive and historical war, in case if, according to their view, the suppression continues. The ball, to quote Maoist mouthpiece JANAAWAJ, is in king's court now and his decision will decide the future course of the country whether a peaceful and progressive solution or compulsion of a decisive and historical struggle. For the first time, writes Puskar Gautam – a former Maoist district commander and now a regular contributor to NepaliTimes, Prachanda has indirectly accepted the role of the monarch by asking for a roundtable meeting with him and the political parties. To be sure, he further adds, Prachanda’s 25 October statement doesn’t suddenly make the Maoists monarchists. But this tacit acceptance of the king’s role is a fundamental departure from their previous stance and must be seen as positive. After launching the so-called people's war, Maoists have two times approached the governments with solid proposals for dialogue in the past. First time in Nov. 2000, they had asked for release of some of their comrades as pre-requisite for the dialogue and once that demand was fulfilled by releasing many Maoist prisoners along with Dinesh Sharma and Dinanath Gautam, they backed away from their promise and their propaganda mechanism was at such a height at that time that they were successful in portraying the government as betrayer. Second time in 2001, when they were successful in portraying GP Koirala as obstacle for peaceful solution of the crisis and as Sher B. Deuba took charge of the office as foremost perpetrator of peace, they responded to call from Deuba and sat in the table. But before emergence of any concrete and viable solution from both sides, they left the dialogue and attacked army barrack. This time everyone from media to so-called intelligentsia circle were startled and Maoists were blamed for the failure of talk. Their propaganda mechanism failed for the first time and so did their reputation in the public, particularly the left inclined media too blamed them for leaving the table without a prior notice. After this instant, they have verbally shown interest for peace talk which never materialized beyond press-release. And now comes a proposal that envisages dialogue not with the executive body, but directly with the king. With this proposal they have not only recognized the king but also accepted the fact that he holds the executive power. In this way they are successful in portraying the constitution of 2047 as non-existing and failed and non-existent of any executive body. If the king now accepts this proposal it will be a serious blow to the parties having belief in parliamentary democracy and this will serve the purpose of Maoist as they are trying every effort to undermine the role of democracy. Looking from the side of King, it seems whatever happening is a pre-planned move. According to Hari Roka, a leftist think tank and research scholar at JNU, KJ Rayamajhi has envisaged this current status well before royal massacre. He writes, in recent issue of Himal, that for formation of an all-party government which our constitution has no provision of, Rayamajhi has suggested long ago what is happening now. So, it seems that Deuba was forced to act according to a pre-staged drama and which now GP Koirala is suggesting as GRAND-DESIGN and something is cooking up in the backyards of palace with the effect of a government with Maoist taking shape. So, it won't be a surprise if Maoists are asked to join the government. Nonetheless, Maoist will try to capitalize this situation only as STRATEGIC STALEMATE and prolong the ad-hoc situation as long as possible so that they can launch some of their political agendas over ground and rally people for their cause. In the meantime they will be consolidating their base areas, reinforcing guerilla areas and engaging in all forms of activities in other areas. And further more, in a government effort to increase the capacity of Armed forces, Maoists will try to infiltrate some of their comrades in police and army. Maoists are trying to close all those activities that engage young people. They will try to disrupt any activities in the rural areas be it School, social activities and development activities as this will leave many young redundant to fill in their militia. The war cannot be fought in the grass root level with more than 5,000 militia as they are inseparable from the general public and the past has shown that one dead life creates more rebels. Never let out any offer of peace talk, there is no alternative to peaceful solution of the current crisis. The government should fight the war in two tiers: Attack the Maoist at top level with all sorts of means: political, diplomatic and military. And dialogue is the key political attack that has to take center-stage. It is far easier to fight with about 100 top leaders in peaceful manner and expose them than to fight with five thousand plus militia with gun and grenade at grass-root level. Launch economic packages in the affected areas. Engage the youngsters in development activities there, send them back to school and give the Maoists recruitment a tough time. Last time when Integrated Development packages were launched, the army themselves were involved in construction. The army should be there to provide safety, not to share employment opportunity of local people. |
| ashu | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 06:44 AM
Jayahos, not that it matters terribly here, but are you DG? Just curious. oohi ashu ktm,nepal |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 06:52 AM
>>Jayahos, not that it matters terribly here, but are you DG? Ashu..I am not! |
| NK | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 09:33 AM
Of course, he is. He is just lying! |
| wy | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 09:54 AM
There are two letters from Dr. BabuRam Bhattarai floating around. One came lat week and the other one that came a couple of days ago. These two sound very different in their tone, and very different from the one from Mr. Awesome, Prachand. That is, these letters are very anti-monarchy and do not sound conciliatory at all. |
| vivashme | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 02:02 PM
Is this one of those letters? http://www.nepalipost.com/discussion.html#37 -ViVashMe |
| wy | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 02:27 PM
Vuvashme: Thanks. Yes. Do you have the second one too? |
| gbncorg | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 02:50 PM
Yo Mao le Sutna Pani Diyen, Yek Thapad Galama Chatkan Hirkaunu Paryo Ki Kya ho ?? |
| vivashme | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 03:04 PM
The same site has other one too I belive. Here is the link: http://www.nepalipost.com/discussion.html#34 -ViVashMe |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 06:22 PM
Thanks wy and Vivashime for bringing forward those two letters. I think those two letters are not contradictory if we look from macro perspective without singling out their actions and agendas. The one dated later, talks about the action i.e. over ground activity in the form general strikes to increase their bargaining power and create a strategic stalemate situation and the other letter, dated earlier, talks about possible course this current crisis will lead to. In his current interview with FEER, Prachanda has clearly mentioned that the achievement from dialogue depends upon the gain in the battleground. Nonetheless, in a current situation of political vacuum their battleground may skew towards political activities and 3-days Bandh may be one in that series. |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 06:23 PM
NK, now I am confused! :) |
| protean | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 06:50 PM
I think there movement is also based on propaganda. When they start getting fee media coverage for perpetrating crimes, their main agenda of creating fear in the country is smoothly conducted ,without much effort [on the media end] on their side. Case in point: Al Qaeda and Bin Laden. Bin Laden got lot of coverage throghout the world, and Al Qaeda and his name became known to a lot --of course these actions were not proper and inhuman acts--and the continued fear of terrorist attacks besieged the US for some time. They would probably want to blow more infrastructures, destroy more centers where information is stored, and also spread terror and fear in the cities. The way of getting attention, for them is to spread the warning of the impending peril. Killing communitarian and dynamic citizens like Major Khatri, is an indication, that they will and are able to inflict harm upon any particular individual, who doesn't support them, and also has a strong presence in the local community. So, the way to counter their enthusiasm is prropaganda from the governments end, bolstering intelligence gathering techniques,provide confidence to villagers and some form of development, and above all increase security. If they get away with getting more citizens killed, getting more media attention,getting more Nepal Bandhs, they would definitely have succeeded in their intensifying terror campaign. This would, of course provide them with further impetus and motivation to launch more attacks. The means are not justifying the end here. We can't let that happen. So, it is high time, the government, the ever-bickering and selfish democratic leaders, and the current King, started to work on a strategy to weaken their attack, and demystify and diffuse the Maoist terror campaigns. The time is ripe for much bolder moves from the current [illusory] administration. After being able to counter the Maoists ways of complete obliteration of what is in existence, and weakening their means [and propaganda] of spreading terror, then bringing them to the table, probalby would behoove everyone. |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 06:10 PM
Maoist's press release after THREE DAYS OF NEPAL BANDH http://www.insof.org/news/131102_press_statement.html Some observations 1. This release is signed by both Dr. Bhattarai and Prachanda..May be intended to show that there voice is unified! 2. They once again reiterate their agenda of round table meeting, interim government and constituent assembly. 3. They take this Bandh as demonstration of public will against the current royal coup. 4. They are about to launch more political and overground programs (JANA PRATIRODH LAGAYAT KA....!). As the press release does not contain any derogatory term against the King - instead, they use the term DARBAR - or Chand government and comes with name of both influential leaders of Maoist, this may indicate their willingness take advantage of current political vacuum. This is in agreement with what Mall K. Sundar said in a recent press meeting as reporter's club. He said: it is time to seek agenda for peace talks rather than anticipate whether such talks would take place at all. |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 06:25 PM
These are all part of game, to confuse Nepali janata that Maosits want peace, indeed they don't or will not stop. Don't get confused. A man with arms will not settle things in round table talks. The maoists are still above snow line, that means they can still claim to be in rise, heading to climb the mountain of power. They should get tired after several tries like Tamil tigers are tired of. It will need some more years. I am sure if the number of RNA is not increased this war will continue atleast for another 8 years. By then, Baburam and Prachanda will get old and their blood pressure will settle, the ranks in maoists will be clear, there will be only one leader either Prachanda or Baburam or Badal. They are still confused who is the leader in maoists. As time passes the difference between main leader and his 2nd man will become a big gap, such that he dictates the Maoists cadres and his decision will be acceptable to all. Same thing happened in Tamil tigers, they killed all their rivals "many rebel groups were active at the start, but, mostly killed by Tamil Tigers itself". This is mechanism of war, and it also happened in Kashmir. A leader appears in crisis, and Maoists have not passed through a crisis yet. HG |
| yatra | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 06:40 PM
Jayahos, To view the press release, which font do i need to download. would not open with kantipur, himal or preeti font. thanks |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 06:53 PM
Yatra: To read the content just copy and paste the whole stuff in MS WORD. Select it and change the font to Kantipur or any other nepali font. I hope you will be able to read it! :) |
| NK | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 07:04 PM
Jayahos (tara kasko?), I really wanted to confuse Ashu but Alas! ;) Anyway, Hahoorguru sounds pessimistic. Well unless if you think waiting for another eight years is a piece of cake. I myself don't know what is going to happen neither can I predict. All I know is the destruction of the country and psyche of Nepali is immeasurable. I just get depressed every time I hear news of bomb blast, another news of mayhem. Still, life goes on... You gotta live... Even thoughl the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel might turn out to be a junkiri... |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 07:26 PM
NK: I am surprised at the 'COUP' against the 'FEATURED' section that had been room for few privilleged seeking solace from the crowd! Yeh, I, too, am optimistic! HG speaks mind, I speak heart! Regarding that confusion, later I figured out that Ashu is talking about DG that means DHERAI GAFADI! Clever enough to figure me out!! 'JAYAHOS' (tara kasko?)!? |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 10:35 PM
NK, I also wish to have peace. Wishes are not always fulfilled. Looking at the mess, I can be theoritically optimistic, but, practically as you know, others know, we all know, Maoists, (except low level brainwashed maoist cadres) know that this problem will continue for years. It is funny to hear Maoists defending 2046ko uplabdi? Who is the main factor behind all these mess? Prachanda and Baburam say "1990ko uplabdi ..." mukha ma ram ram bagali ma chhura bhanay Prachanda and Baburam. Now, Prachanda and Baburam also can not stop this war, even if they wish. Because they will be trashed and a new person will emerge infront line of Maoists. They can settle, as I said before, when they have big gap between main leader and 2nd man. There are no 2nd man yet, all are first men or last men. HG |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 10:50 PM
If we want to stop this war, we have to elevate either one of the Prachanda or Baburam or Badal as exclusive leader. Don't deal with two persons. Don't mention two names parallel in news paper. Tell them, who is leader, Prachanda or Baburam. We are human, these two must be competing to get absolute leadership. When Maoist activities in Gorkha almost died in recent years (not so active as it was before) , Baburam is said to be his HAATH tal paryo re. Right now, there are many panels inside the single Maoist banner, we don't them as normal citizen. But, we hear in dim sound: fatta futta. Thats not rumor, thats fact, leaked naturally. Now, Maoists have looted money, and that won't let them settle. First job if we want to settle is to cut the lifelines to Maoists. Did not we hear only 2 days back in Rautahat Malpot office, a corrut officer burned all the papers and reported it was by Maoists, and Maoists must have enjoyed the news. I mean today, all kind of peoples who want to enjoy the lawlessness are contributing to Maoists. Under such fear, Maoists who are running fears will take advantage of these peoples and continue to claim their strong base. ......... There is only one hope, first increase the number of RNA. Control thuggish activities of non-Maoists, put all them in jail, relieve the peoples from non-Maoist chor fataha daka, then, only we can realize where are the Maoists, how much they weigh. Then, comes the settlement. HG |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 24-Nov-02 06:37 PM
Prachanda's Interview in Janaawaj http://www.insof.org/janaawaj/36/interview.htm Some positive and negative developments: 1. Once again he reiterates their demand for constituent assembly and envisages constituent assembly as the first legitimate step towards a blah blah..... The one difference from their earlier stance I noticed is their acceptance of only one army but under control of elected representatives of people. Their unclear stance on this issue and sometimes even asking a separate army of their cadres was, I suppose, one hurdle for a round table conference. 2. Now, few incumbent in the cabinet are capable people (no more discussions about their legitimacy!) who can really draft government's agenda - instead of those like Gachhadar and Khum Bahadur - and can talk meaningfully with Maoist, can we expect some positive development? 3. Prachanda in his FEER interview had said that their success in table is determined by their success in the ground and their consecutive success in SandhiKharka, Jumla, Gorkha and others may lead to think them that this is right time for bargain. 4. Ramesh Nath is the man who is supposed to be working as contact person for Maoist and Palace. As he is a minister now, can we take this as signal from the palace for dialogue? 5. They do not dismiss this government as illegimate. Negative 1. They are concerned about king doing the politics with their own breakaway man like Kamal Chaulagain. 2. Although they consider roundtable conference, interim government and constituent assembly as legitimate and progressive solution for this crisis, they never forget to mention an all-out-our to wipe the monarchy in their latest press release and other documents. 3. Palace is well-determined to move ahead alone without the political parties. 4. Political parties....................KAHILE AAUNE HO INIHARUKO BUDHHI? |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 03-Dec-02 08:29 PM
A positive development http://www.nepalipost.com/main.html#48 I would like to quote their decision, as I understand them: 1. Joint struggule for progressive solution of current crisis 2. Joint struggle for roundtable conference, interim government, constituent assembly 3. They are stopping killing of civilian 4. They are stopping sabotaging infrastrucutres 5. They have formed a committe for dialogue and are ready to talk with PURANO SATTAKA SANCHALAK. A ray of light at the end of the dark and confusing tunnel! |
| suva chintak | Posted
on 03-Dec-02 09:11 PM
I for one dearly hope that unfolding events in the days ahead prove me wrong, but I think the olive branch from Mr. Mao is not sincere! Given their extreme radical plans, why would they go to negotiate when they are big military victories one after the other? Secondly, why whould they agree to meet a government they have already described as being illegal and unconstitutional? So what makes them call for peace now? MY suspicion is that they want to buy time like they did last year. This time it is for different reasons. US and Britain are putting indirect pressure on Delhi to reign in the Maoists while they prepare for finishing off Saddam. India has to comply, so it tells Maoists to lie quiet for a few weeks while the Western countries give their full attention to Iraq. After the US is done with Iraq, India will again lift its hold on the Maoists and they will again walk out of the peace negotations to finish off the remaining RNA. There is no sincerity in the talk proposal, the people and the government are all setting themselves for a big surprise 3-4 months down the road. It is pathetic, a lamb wanting to believe that the wolf will enter into a negotation! I still hope the Maoists will prove me wrong their sincerity to finally see reason. In Peace! |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 03-Dec-02 10:58 PM
SC, I liked your 3rd paragraph. That speaks everything. Good analysis indeed. I will repeat my prediction that this war will continue for another 8 years: to get complete normal life. This is again a drama run by Maoists, nothing more. They seems to be under cat - cat chase with RNA. In last one year, the number of maoists death toll (at least in govt. status) must have caused them "lower level" mentally scared. They want to buy time. RNA should not stop, let talk continue, RNA should keep on continuing. Otherwise, the Maoists will find time to strengthen more ............ My prediction is this: Maoists (one faction: though we don't see several factions naked in eye: you do x-ray photography, you will find borderlines within Maoists) will start laying down arms around end of 2005-beginning 2006, and another small group will emerge in public (another faction) who will say "we won'T stop. Those who laydown arms are cowards and are Gaddars....". Well, peoples including lower level maoists will be tired of this prolonged war. One group will continue to laydown arms while another will try to get advantage of front line leaders leaving the jungle. It will take another 3 years. Thus, in 2009-2010, except a very small faction, practically the armed Maoists will disappear from Nepal. Then, in 2011-2015 we will have another start of war ................ That will not be Maoists, that will not be Amale, that will not be by Nepali Congress cadres, but, some other political parties .... This kind of war will keep on continue ........... whether it was "dead" or "live" Peace, whatever we had, it had already died in Nepal. Long term peace is beyond imagination....... at least in this first half of century. There are many unsolved problems, the GARIBI Poverty, will not be the issue of war after 2010.... They will have different issues....the "dead" or "live" peace - harmony of yesterday can never be brought back. ........ Whether you like my prediction or not, its my prediction. Time will show how far I am right, but, I am confident that my predictions will work N(1, 0.1). HG |
| Garibjanata | Posted
on 04-Dec-02 02:24 PM
HahooGuruji, I am curious to know about yr predictions regarding these three questions: Who will be the reigning monarch of Nepal after ten years? Gyanendra, Paras or Hridayandra? Is Paras capable of committing regicide/patricide ? Will Nepal move towards peace and prosperity under Paras' rule? SUVACHINAKJI, Who is the "LAMB" and who is the "WOLF"? |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 04-Dec-02 05:37 PM
Garibjanata, bheti hadhaunu parcha when you want to know answer to specific questions/predictions. Jyotish le bheti bina aruo question answer dina hunna re. Dherai ta hoina Tyo Tamako 10 Paisa bhaye pugcha. Well, Tamako 10paisa ko digitaly scanned gareko version bhaye pani huncha. I am not sure whether silver /gold credit card bheti is also. Let me study in that possibility.. I will let you know? Do you have silver/gold or platinium credit cards? Then, we can proceed to get answer to your JAYAZ question. HG |
| taha cha | Posted
on 05-Dec-02 11:15 PM
HG, You have won another fan.... After I read your postings I no longer need to say anything. It is amazing.. |
| suva chintak | Posted
on 06-Dec-02 05:12 AM
Dear HG, Unfortunately, it did not take long for your forecasts to come true. The very next day the Great Comrade Prachanda raised the hopes of guillibe janatas about his merciful offer of peace, they launched murderous attacks in Lahan and Chanauta killing scores of policemen and looting millions of rupees from public banks. If that is the kind of peace the Maoists are going to give to the Nepali people, we might as well just have war. So much for peace! |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 06-Dec-02 06:11 AM
Though their immediate act speaks otherwise, I am still optimistic about the developments. Pollyanna or what? By the way, have a look at the map in the following link (sorry, if you are already aware of it): http://www.csis.org/saprog/sam53.htm (Originally posted in this link: http://www.sajha.com/sajha/html/openThread.cfm?forum=2&ThreadID=8326 by Shiva Shiva!!) On a second thought, are they trying to encircle Kathmandu? |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 06-Dec-02 06:34 AM
If you are reading the news and views everyday, there is nothing new in that article. Its only good for first time reader on whats going on in Nepal. HG |
| Jayahos | Posted
on 06-Dec-02 06:46 AM
HG jyu, You speak here the truth, as always?! :) Do I read the news and views everday? Sajha mai chha basasthan, kaha bata padhne ho ni! :) |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 06-Dec-02 07:16 AM
We have to see the following points: 1. BRB told long time back that the "table talk is a drama(he did not use the word drama but, wrote in a lenght to mean it) they will push when they are either very weak or very strong". He said its the thing Mao practiced in China. 2. How many of you have ever worked in foundry shop. I worked in foundry shop as a student. I did make a mould, then, poured hot metal and seen how its made. I also worked in a shop where we were given a 15cm long round bar piece and asked to make 20cm long chisel. Can you imagine turning a round iron bar into a chisel. Yes, we did it. It was 45degree centrigate, the hottest day of the summer, many students gave up because of the hot. I among other friends worked there despite of heat...... We had to do it. we started heating it to read in that coal heat pool, then, brought out and beat it beat it .... it was in 500 -700 deg. centrigate hot red metal... we kept on beating it until we got the size. Once it gets black (300-500c) we have to put back in fire....Well, a friend of mine, forgot that the black hot metal and touched the metal, his hand instantly burned .... Finally, we did our job. In this long process of 3 hours, many students gave up because of high temperature room. Similarly, what BRB said is understandable. You push army and you defeat your enemy in the rural area: fear and rear, and when such defeat are reported in news papers in KTM, the middle class in KTM find it hard to digest Maoists, because they feel that whether they will be victim like in Cambodia, and then, Maoists push PARCHA "Prachanda signed faxes in major media house"... such news floats and the middle class peoples kathmandu start breathing air a bit relaxed ... this cycle continues .... Its like beating the round bar, making it chisel in three hours ... Maoists are using the same mechanism ..... throwing faxes: not verifiable, and claiming it fake, hoax ... we are still hoping to get peace... ? Do you honestly think that peace will come to your home so easily? from a group of armed people who (leadership) is not losing anything ? Then, you are wrong. 3. What can you draw from that FAX, BANK robbery, police killing cycles ? claim of hoax emails, hoax faxes... when you don't exactly the status of Prachanda ? whether he is really Puspa Kamal Dahal? 4. I am wondering whether Puspa Kamal Dahal really exist? Like Murphy's law does not have real man named Murphy, what about Prachanda? No one has seen him? We have only heard rumors? 6. This Prachanda's fax, dialogue committee, ... .are all look time consuming stuffs. I am sure this BARTA even if it takes, it will consume another 4-6 months to start. The drama will continue (the monsoon in peace deal: a clever method), and next september we will hear another break in this peace deal, not positively, but, Maoists will withdraw and start killing at the start of Dashain, a kind of panic or fear they want to create. ... Lets see. Lets hope from heart that peace will be revived, though, our mind says its not going to be so easy. I mean we should not run its not possible, because "we know that when we tell someone is PAGAL by every one, that guy will become PAGAL in 6 months", and lets not say peace can not be revived, but, lets not be 100% confident that it will be revived..... As Hitler said that if you say something that is wrong indeed but, you spell it as true for 100times , it will be true, and we should not be followign hitler's principle that Hunai naskne peacedeal will arrive just because all mass media or people wants,.... we spoke million times, it did not arrive. Lets not hijacked by Hitlerian method. Maoists will not deliver us peace in table talk within a few years,... you have to wait atleast till 2005-2006....from where arms lay down will start .... Its just 3 years away. The end of Maosit war will take place in 2009-2010 year, i.e. 8 years away. |
| HahooGuru | Posted
on 07-Dec-02 10:55 PM
Eleven injued in restaurant explosion Eleven locals were injured Saturday when the Maoist rebels exploded a pressure cooker bomb at a restaurant in Saibu VDC of Lalitpur district, some three kilometers south of the ring road, police said. A group of unidentified men entered the Karyabinayak restaurant situated in Chhayasipot of Saibu and exploded a pressure cooker bomb after taking control of the man in the counter. ..... (rest of the part of the news : read it in Nepalnews.com) ------ What was the reason for injuries to these poor 11 fellows? The crime they committeed was they were in the restaurant? Is it a tactics they used to pressurize the call for valley bandhs. What happened to Prachanda's call for "not attack on common peoples?" what is the difference between this attack and attack on running bus? Do you really think that Prachanda controls the lower level Maoists? If believe him, wake up before it gets late. |