| Username |
Post |
| M.P. |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 11:53 AM
Kathmandu, Oct 13, 2002
The Sinking Nepal
M.P., the chief editor of this publication revealed, today, his finding on the relationship between politics and mathematics. He had been concealing his theory eversince he discovered it about a year ago. Speaking at a press conference organized just before he boarded the plane to Philadelphia, M.P. said, "Inspired by Chatmaya Kabi and his theory of love, I am publishing this theory. Although the national political scenario has changed dramatically in the recent past, my theory, I hope, will nonetheless give some insight into the habits of some politicians we elected a few years ago." M.P. will be presenting his finding at the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, on the eve of Thanksgiving. The article below outlines the theory.
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Dummy Variables
Sometimes I feel guilty about my tendency to link everything to politics these days. I need to be judicious about the exposure of my habit. I have to ensure that there are no journalists around. Otherwise, like anything else, they would assume my habit to be a consequence of 'September 11' - the most common phrase in the recent past. Although I am not going to talk about this favorite phrase, I have to be equally prudent as I am talking about the people in the driving seat of Nepal. I am ridiculing them and who knows they might label me a 'terrorist'--the second most used phrase after 'September 11'-- and arrest me on charges of 'subverting the state power' (Zimbabwe's President Mugawe's favorite phrase I guess), the way they arrested my chiyaa-pasale friend from my village in Arghakhanchi for 'not being positive towards the security officials'.
That was a clear digression. Even Bamdev Gautam would not digress so much in his speech.
The analogy I talk about here is the one between 'dummy variables' and the politicians of Nepal. May be this is not an analogy since these two are perfectly interchangeable. At least I think so.
The first word 'dummy' hardly needs any explanation. Take, for instance, Sher Bahadur Deuba. He clearly examplifies the" buddhi-pachhi-aaune-nepali" category. How dumb a man could be rely on assertions that a party that has been active for almost six years to topple the monarch will give up its demands and come to negotiations overnight?
He goes to almost every latrine inauguration program but does not know what to say there. It seems like he was terrified by something in his early age. This is clearly a symptom of a 'beautiful mind' (Thank god Deuba went to London School of Economics and not to Princeton).
Let me not be biased. Let me consider our villain in the parliament, Madhav Ji. Have you ever heard him saying anything positive about the government? May be during his 'nau mahine chhoto sashankaal'. But optimism cannot alone be a criterion for judging ones dumbness anyway. Madhav ji remains a dummy even if we sideline optimism from the criteria. I bet if he can give his opinion on anything. Pardon me if I have not seen or read enough of his interviews but the usual answer he gives after coming out of every meeting is "haamro party ko baithak pachhi haami haamro dhaaranaa bekta garnechhou". Why on hell does he have to wait for his party meeting when the reporter is seeking his PERSONAL opinion? A real 'bholi-man'!
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| M.P. |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 11:54 AM
I do not want to talk about Bam Dev Gautam; I might digress again. Just imagine this person, 'who has never learnt to lose', without C P Mainali. Don't you think he would have been much dumber without C P?
For the time being, we can ignore other 'dummies' (in real calculations, we need to exclude at least one variable). By 'other', I mean those from Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal Sadbhawana Party, Nepal Majdur Kisan Party etc. All these excluded (seems like nobody really cares about these little parties!) variables know is that there should be 'utthaan' of dalits, terai baasis etc. And for them, 'utthaan' almost every time means two things: making Hindi a link language and/or getting access to the temples. Two main meanings of the same word; hmm..fits the concept of dummy variable again although the two variables are non-exclusive in this case!
Baburam and Prachanda are outliers. They do not follow any law. I do not want to spoil my grade by including them in my calculations.
The reason these leaders are 'variables' is simple--they vary in fatness (meaning their status varies--the probability of them getting fat tends towards 1 when they are in the government and towards 0 when they are not), and they vary in opinion from one time to another [the difference between these two times tends towards zero when a vote of no confidence is being introduced]. Our main variable Deuba would not have been thrown out of power from his last government had he realized that all the 'chhattises' were not 'fixed values'; they were variables. Also, I had to call him a 'dummy' here because it took so long for him to realize that he was actually trying to negotiate with the 'blood- thirsty' outliers with an illusion that they were 'fixed values'. I do not expect this 'power thirsty' leader to know math to such depth anyway--in our sati-le-sarapeko-desh, even the finance minister knows only politics, not math. And the intricacies get augmented if Deuba becomes an exception.
Once again, we discover that there are two kinds of leaders--'blood thirsty' and 'power thirsty'. Rest can be the excluded group.
Madhavji's and Bamdev Gautam's variability are evident in their fluctuating views regarding the Mahakali Treaty. You vary in opinions, you divide; you realize that you didn't really vary in your opinions and you vary your decision from being separate to being united and finally, you unite on grounds that your opinions didn't vary. Amazing creatures!! Even the excluded variable, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, followed the wake.
I am not a mathematician and never knew there existed such relationship between politics and mathematics. I leave it up to the reader to dig up other analogies. Permutation and combination would not be a bad idea since we can use the number of political parties and find out how many governments we are destined to tolerate before we finally get something new [Note: Recently we got that "something new". Unfortunately, this new thing happened to be another "dummy variable". The extended paper being presented at Wharton School of Business also explains why Gyanendra, the new thing, is a dummy variable.]
How about adding 'dummy variables' to the list of favorite phrases 'September 11' and 'terrorists'? I am sure this would not be racist or anything since that would include all the dummy rulers and politicians of the world--President Bush included.
"You are either with the Dummy Variables or with the Terrorists!" President Bush should have said this instead of what he said on Sept 12, 2001. This would have made much more sense!
--Misunderstood Poet,
Kathmandu, Nepal
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| M.P. |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 11:55 AM
I do not want to talk about Bam Dev Gautam; I might digress again. Just imagine this person, 'who has never learnt to lose', without C P Mainali. Don't you think he would have been much dumber without C P?
For the time being, we can ignore other 'dummies' (in real calculations, we need to exclude at least one variable). By 'other', I mean those from Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal Sadbhawana Party, Nepal Majdur Kisan Party etc. All these excluded (seems like nobody really cares about these little parties!) variables know is that there should be 'utthaan' of dalits, terai baasis etc. And for them, 'utthaan' almost every time means two things: making Hindi a link language and/or getting access to the temples. Two main meanings of the same word; hmm..fits the concept of dummy variable again although the two variables are non-exclusive in this case!
Baburam and Prachanda are outliers. They do not follow any law. I do not want to spoil my grade by including them in my calculations.
The reason these leaders are 'variables' is simple--they vary in fatness (meaning their status varies--the probability of them getting fat tends towards 1 when they are in the government and towards 0 when they are not), and they vary in opinion from one time to another [the difference between these two times tends towards zero when a vote of no confidence is being introduced]. Our main variable Deuba would not have been thrown out of power from his last government had he realized that all the 'chhattises' were not 'fixed values'; they were variables. Also, I had to call him a 'dummy' here because it took so long for him to realize that he was actually trying to negotiate with the 'blood- thirsty' outliers with an illusion that they were 'fixed values'. I do not expect this 'power thirsty' leader to know math to such depth anyway--in our sati-le-sarapeko-desh, even the finance minister knows only politics, not math. And the intricacies get augmented if Deuba becomes an exception.
Once again, we discover that there are two kinds of leaders--'blood thirsty' and 'power thirsty'. Rest can be the excluded group.
Madhavji's and Bamdev Gautam's variability are evident in their fluctuating views regarding the Mahakali Treaty. You vary in opinions, you divide; you realize that you didn't really vary in your opinions and you vary your decision from being separate to being united and finally, you unite on grounds that your opinions didn't vary. Amazing creatures!! Even the excluded variable, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, followed the wake.
I am not a mathematician and never knew there existed such relationship between politics and mathematics. I leave it up to the reader to dig up other analogies. Permutation and combination would not be a bad idea since we can use the number of political parties and find out how many governments we are destined to tolerate before we finally get something new [Note: Recently we got that "something new". Unfortunately, this new thing happened to be another "dummy variable". The extended paper being presented at Wharton School of Business also explains why Gyanendra, the new thing, is a dummy variable.]
How about adding 'dummy variables' to the list of favorite phrases 'September 11' and 'terrorists'? I am sure this would not be racist or anything since that would include all the dummy rulers and politicians of the world--President Bush included.
"You are either with the Dummy Variables or with the Terrorists!" President Bush should have said this instead of what he said on Sept 12, 2001. This would have made much more sense!
________________
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| paramendra |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 12:03 PM
M.P. is back. Rock and roll ...........
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| SMR |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 03:08 PM
M.P.:
While you are at it, be aware of a dummy variable trap.
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| M.P. |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 03:15 PM
SMR,
Bujhina.
M.P.
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| lonely |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 03:27 PM
good one M.P. jeu...
tapai ko khub chaldai chha re bhanne sundai chhu ni..ke chha ...
hamlai pani yeso thaha dinus na..
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| Logical Sense |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 03:49 PM
Just to add:
Deuba variable is dummiest of all variables because he did not even notice that his value was being varied by supermo dummy variable K.G. He also tried to snatch the value from another dummiest variable G.K. but in vain. This lead to all the value of these dummy variables in Nepal tending to Zero hence the total value of equation turned out to be a CONSTANT (the last entity), hence after 12 years of democracy we are still CONSTANTly at the bottom of POOREST OF POOR nation.
As always Good Work M.P.ji [Political Doctor, 02]
:]
- iti
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| SMR |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 04:42 PM
M.P.
Dummy variable (non)-trap: keep one of the dummies stationary -- "absolute dummy"-- so you can compare the rest of the "dummies" with that "dummy". It allows you to have a reference point to compare all the "dummies."
So, who is the candidate for your absolute dummy variable?
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| M.P. |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 05:08 PM
SMR,
Would you like to volunteer? Just Kidding. Mukh maa kuro bhandi haalyaa..
As always, let's have Gyanu-Chaa as the absolute dummy. But that alone wont be fun I guess. We should have a deputy-absolute dummy too. Girija would make the best "deputy absolute dummy" :). Girija talks alot. So, may be he should be the "deputy absolute kouwa-dummy". Oops..yetro laamo naam ta Head-Chakadiwaaj "Kunni K Kunni K Kunni K Shumsher Ja Ba Raa " ko ni hunna holaa!! K garnu, gaali garera hune bhaye ma yo jantu haru laai raat bhari gaali garthe...
What do you think? Since you thought of an idea to rate these "dummies", why dont you do the rating first? [Assume the absolute dummy gets 11 on a scale of 10--one point M.P.'s bonus for smiling once (remember!)--and the deputy gets 10/10]. By the way, do not forget that hijo-bomb-padkadaa-marna-nasakeko Kesharjung Rayamajhi :)
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| protean |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 05:36 PM
M.P, and SMR,
What about the correlation factor between the dummies?
Suppose, the dummiest of all ,say Deoba, gets 11. Then, should everyone of the dummies, be ranked based on the correlation factor.
I would not want to rate King G. at 11, because, he was quite "adept" to see the opportunity, that the dummiest variable in the power equation ,could be replaced, by a less "dummy" variable.
In our dummy variable, what do we use for the smartest of the dummies (like lesser of 2 evils types)?. 0 OR -11?
Now, if Girija gets 10, what is the correlation factor between Girija and say Sailaja. I suppose, we can use the gene factor, and RATE this dummy to be 9.
Similarly, the 76ers (not the phillies) would be anywhere from 6-9 based on kinship and other adjoining factors.
Now, if we get Chand to be between 10-11 ,and Gyane to be say 4, what is the expected mean of his combination of dummies as opposed to a combination of a dummy dummy of Deoba and a smart dummy of value 1 given that the probability of the occurence of all the variables are random.
Also include the Royalist dummies that range from 10 to 11. When wev'e dummies that are not significant (ie rate very high on this scale) ,they can be easily be replaced by another less rated dummy.
So, what do we expect now with all these combinations?
What if Makunes, the Maobadis, the Gyanes, and the Girijes each provide a certain proprotion to the dumminess variable, resulting in a very neutra dummy factor that could be actually used rather than substituted (or used as a pawn)?
We could just negate all the dummies, and use a new "SMARTEY" that is more of a constant, and not a variable itself,in our calculation.
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| SMR |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 05:56 PM
M.P., Protean:
With the dummy comparison, you don't want to rate them. To begin with, you just want to put them higher or lower in relation to the absolute "dummy." Else you will lose audience. Keep it simple folks. Remember, Einstein got his Mahendra Bidhya Bhushan for e=mc^2.
Now, to make it more interesting, you want to create dummies based on more than one dimension.
For example, Girija may be a good candidate for absolute dummy on the basis of his "holier than thou category, wink wink," whereas Deuba will have to occupy that spot for the category of "I swear I really did not see it coming cause I was bending."
Well?
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| protean |
Posted
on 13-Nov-02 09:03 PM
If we have some correlation, then it might be more meaningful.
Ok , here are my suggestions.
Most dummy variable: For the dumbest actions or dispostions .
For a deer going into a hungry ,but sleeping tiger's den (looking for food) knowing it will definitely get killed if the tiger were to be awakened. Deoba going to Gyane's den and waking him up.
Deoba Scored 11.
For coming with ways of articulating of a conspiracy of a grand design when
he had a opportunity to create his own grand design of progress for the country. Instead attempted to grand design for his own lineage, and successfully proved to be "no better than a hawaldaar in terms of thinking " just as predicted by his older brother.
GPK : 10.
For talking about development ,but impeding it by succesfully creating and institutionalizing the ever so popular cliche of staging "Nepal Bandhs". For talking about ways of creating change, when he was himself afraid of it, and acted like a fool whenever he had a chance.
Makune: 10
For having the boldness to kill the deer when surrounded by mortal enemies and for not realizing that it is getting into competition with other mortal enemies ,who also want to enjoy the kill.
Gyanendra:10
For wining, dining, and pan chapaying for 12 years ,losing majority of elections, and being replaced by an ever so articulate grand designer (of deteioration),every time when in power.
KPB:9
Several could have kinship with these dummies ,and might have logic in associating them with these dummy [variables].
Keep on adding.
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| batauli |
Posted
on 14-Nov-02 02:24 AM
ali angrezi ma pani kura garam na ho.....
batauli
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