| SA |
Posted
on 27-Jan-03 04:39 AM
Does the latest shooting incident (assassinating IGP) reflect a new tactic under Maoist’s changed strategy to target high-ranking personalities? Many political observers hypothesize (perhaps correctly) that Maoist can simultaneously fulfill two objectives, first send shockwave though urban elite and make them pressure up the government for the “talk”, and second gain propaganda mileage to keep the morale of their cadre up. On the other hand, government seems to banking more on growing international concerns shown by international and regional powers rather than mobilizing domestic political forces. So, Maoists and governments are acting on two separate sets of assumptions but in self-deception. The net outcome is reinforcing cycle of violence.
If the things move in the current way, the final equilibrium would surely be worst (even for the winning party) than the otherwise give-and-take settlement that is workable now. For this, both side should be free of their illusions, Maoist of their communist utopia and government of their Military might! The latest shooting incident shows Maoists, though too weak to control district head quarters beyond night hours, still have too many trump cards to use violence to their strategic advantage. We need more than commonsense to conclude that, given the state of our economy, and physical and security infrastructure, we simply cannot afford this kind of escalation of violence.
What is the way out? As always is the case, it needs unconventional (in terms of quantity or quality) intervention to break the vicious cycle. The government has already exhausted all available options (rather wasted to say in a strategic sense!). The extent of successive governments’ intervention never went beyond incremental upward adjustment. Even the so-called emergency with so much halla-khalla did not come as a big-bang, rather it was just an upgraded security operation in reaction to the Maoist’s overrunning Dang barrack. But such a novice act of establishment is gradually escalating the violence without showing any sign that the end of tunnel is anywhere nearer!
So, the establishment is now obliged to make a big-bang not in terms of sending US or Indian commandos to Rolpa (if such component is at all necessary, it should be decided through political process not through Military offices), rather in terms of making unconventional political overtures. It might come in several forms, such as:
Accept the fact that Maoist is a political force (using terror as a tool). It’s not time to be emotional. Accept also the fact that they constitute a well-motivated political force, which is at times smarter than other political forces in political strategy and maneuvers. Most importantly, realize that core of their political philosophy runs counter to the political aspiration of informed majority of Nepalese society. Militarily, even the Maoists have admitted that their strength is nowhere near to that of RNA. If so, what's wrong with letting them to face the public, say in the form of so called constitution assembly? The argument that Maoist will cheat the government with “the Talk card” does not hold any water. In politics every force try to cheat or outsmart the others for political gain. So, there is nothing wrong on the part of Maoist to try to “cheat”. It is the responsibility of government not to be cheated. When warring parties sit for a table talk, the new situation creates many strategic levers that could be available for maneuvering for either party. If one party acts foolishly (like the government team did in the last round of talk), the other will naturally gain. During that talk the government team presented as if they were there just to issue orders and instructions or to interpret the constitution rather than to negotiate a political deal in flavor of parliamentary democracy in a best possible way.
Yes, I know there are many who think Maoist should be crushed. But “should be” alone does not ensure “can be”. I often see the argument of the “should be” school very superficial never discussing legitimate "what ifs". Most importantly, what we have to now realize is that the nation is now on the verge of full-fledge civil war. The international interests are gradually entangled with this otherwise our domestic problems. But we as Nepal and Nepali are too weak or too insignificant to maneuver the international dimensions. Time is running out…..
Pashupatinath le hami sabai lai satbuddhi diun!!!
Peace!
SA
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| rajunpl |
Posted
on 28-Jan-03 05:46 AM
Seems that your vision is not that bad till certain degree of view.Nepalese ploitics is not experienced it is only 13 years old.Although ranas played a major role eversince and till now.There is some major problem in nepalese citizens as well.They trapped in illusion so quickly.multy-party democracy have no idea about other side of nepal neither maoist does.But the palace knows the bothside.
It is just like americans living in the state hearing about neplalese landscapes and the mountain over nepal.They can study about anything in the lonely planet about nepal.But when they reach there they will see the other remain side of the nepal.They can enjoy the never founding scapes of the geographical diversities of nepal but they return with the pity on life-style of nepalese on the daily basis.Government think they wont know any real thing about the country when they stay in 5 star hotel,but they can study about outside nepal before-reaching that 5-star hotel.
Maoist is doing big mistake by taking the shining path of mao like in the early 40's.neither maoist nor other leftist cannot expect communism in the marx era,lenin era or the mao's era.There can be any method of running government.COMMUNISM,CAPITALISM or any other means.World has modernised in every aspects of fields.It start from daily lifestyle to reach the moon.You can see the failure of communism in russia and the eastern europe.But aren't the vito power like german and the italy were communist?Yes they were and they are.Marx born in german stayed later life in england.See how clever they are.They brought modernisation in communism and they are among the top nations of the world.
Maoist can do the same thing.They can teach the illiterate people about the advantages of being maoist but not the educated.Because educated can know know the both good and bad sides.They may fear that if educated people know more about that they can fill the weak side and take over.The strategy of "surrounding town by the village" and village by town" doesn't exist anymore.It can be flourish in the big country like china and their poverty but not in nepal .Where the country is rather small and people has certain amenities to spend lifestyle.The illusion among is among the village and the town people,so does in america and the uk.There are certain weakness in our culture it has to catch the right direction.Ranas devasted our culture to correct it you have to throw them out of the way.Maoist 40 points demands are the best for nepal compare to any other political parties.
Multiple democracy is a major fruit for anycountry if it runs smoothly with the less corruption and more work.Multiple means it could be anysystem but the pure socialism.No countries in the world are away from the corruption.It just nepal where corruption is like broad daylight.
I they want to see the existence of nepal.They have to compromise the policy between any party and every party because all of them has the far reaching consequence woth good vision as well.Why don't they ask the public? Monarcy system is eradicated from every developed country,they may have experienced that it doesn't work anymore.Why prince charles is quite when tony blair send troops to iraq?You can say they have different parliamentry system but what wrong with the nepalese parliamentry system it is only bugs who run it are wrong.
What do you think?
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